The bugle has been sounded for assembly polls in five states – Assam, West Bengal, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The fate of incumbent governments and aspiring opposition parties hangs in the balance – even while a frenetic election campaign participated by top national and regional leaders is underway — till the time the counting takes place on May 4 and results of all the five states are declared at one go. The sense of suspense lasting nearly two months is the beauty of democracy. This, even as the leadership profiles of various national and regional parties hardly inspires people in general. For the people, whoever wins makes little difference. Politicians across the spectrum are corrupt and loudmouths without stuff but they are able to carry the people with them.
Notably, the BJP may stand a chance to win only Assam among the five states up for polls. Bengal under the charismatic leadership of Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress has proven again and again that other political parties – the BJP, the Congress and the CPIM—do not stand a chance at outwitting Banerjee, the people’s leader. She stands with the people and is not given to showing off, unlike most other politicians of the day. Tamil Nadu is also a no-go area for the BJP for most part. It has tried and tested several leaders, some of them from the Dravidian stable, but they could not challenge the DMK in the past elections. When Jayalalithaa led the AIADMK, it had a name and fame, and the BJP too basked under her glory. Now, AIADMK is led by faceless leaders, and some of them have crossed over to the DMK to be in greener pastures. Kerala remains a Left bastion. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan managed to retain power for himself and the left in the last assembly polls, granting the Left a steady uninterrupted 10 years in power. This time, chances are that the anti-incumbency factor would work against the CPI-M led LDF while the Congress is waiting in the wings to grab power. In Kerala too, the BJP is in a weak position. It has no representatives in the state assembly but would likely get a few seats.
In this round of polls, the Congress has hope principally in Kerala, but there too the problem is that it is a divided house. CM-aspirants are one too many; and they are seeking to undercut each other. This is the reason why Rahul Gandhi, in one of his recent public addresses in the state, advised his party leaders to “dance together” and not dance solo, if they intended to win power in the state. The Left is flushed with funds. Funds for the BJP would flow like water from Delhi to all the election–bound states, as has been the case. The Congress, having power only in a few states, is handicapped by funds for a full-fledged campaign anywhere. The Election Commission’s special cell that spreads its dragnet in all election-bound territories and announces a few seizures of “unaccounted” cash transportation cases – for election campaign or other purposes— is a damp squib.
