By Toki Blah
Today the term “ Geopolitics “ is often bandied around as if everyone knows what it means and how it impinges on nations. Let me be candid, even at the risk of being called ill informed, but the fact remains that most of us do not understand the term. I for one, did have a vague notion of what the term stood for but I needed to visit Wikipedia to really understand it.
The idea behind this write-up is to share this understanding with a wider audience, as the writer believes that geopolitical issues are a reality we will increasingly encounter over time. It will not only shape the contours of our lives but it certainly will impact on the life of generations to come. So, what exactly do we mean by Geopolitics? Simply put “Geopolitics” is a study of how Geography (terrain, location, borders, natural resources and climate) often determines a country’s political relations with others. Geopolitics shapes and influences the foreign policy, international relations and consequently the power struggle between nations. Geopolitics has certainly manipulated India’s relations with its immediate neighbours and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. In short geopolitics simply magnifies the silhouette where Geography and Political Power merge and the subsequent manifestations from such mergers. This is important to understand
Let us try to cite examples from the past and from current events as to how Power and Geography met and the changes that emerged from such an encounter. World War 2 ended in 1945. This termination of hostilities found the world divided into two blocks or groups. On one hand it found Western Liberal Democracy led by the US having an eyeball -to- eyeball confrontation with the USSR and its allies. This led to the formation of NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The battlefield where both parties anticipated meeting in combat was the flat plains of Europe. Ruling out the use of nuclear weapons and by studying the terrain and lay of the land , both sides surprisingly came to the same conclusion. The only way to fight was through the speedy movement of tanks and mechanized infantry amply supported by ground attack aircraft and helicopters. Geography here dictated the methodology of a future war.
Today we find the same strategy being applied in the Middle East. The US despite its mighty and overbearing military power; technological superiority and state of the art weaponry found itself forced into a corner begging for a ceasefire, simply because It never bothered to study the lay of the land before attacking Iran. Iran though militarily weaker than its rival, quickly recognised the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz, a trump card it held over Trump! Iran made maximum use of a strategic geographical asset it had, a choke point for oil and gas tankers. It simply blocked the strait. This simple act of closing the oil flow to a energy hungry world forced its opponent, a Super Power, to call for a ceasefire and from there to the negotiating table. The outcome from available sources indicate that these talks are dominated by Iranian National interests. Geopolitics at its best.
The incident above and its fallout—the humbling of a powerful bully by a smaller less developed victim—is definitely not lost on the rest of the World. Every country recognizes that the right of unhindered movement in internationally recognized sealanes is the key , if not the most important key, towards globalization of trade and commerce. The growing economy of the whole world depends of this uninterrupted maritime movement. The takeaway from the Strait of Hormuz incident is the realization that growth of Global Economy depends on the freedom of passage through several strategic straits, which act as chokepoints for shipping routes, energy transport, and naval security. It was equally obvious that such choke points either pass through a country or is close to territory of a country who will not hesitate to replicate the Iranian Hormuz experiment, if that country’s core national interests are threatened. Iran has just proved that control of such strategic maritime bottlenecks can throw the whole World into a tizzy while also bringing your enemy to its knees. Question that the World community must answer is, Can International Rule of Law, if it still exists after Trump, allow similar incidents in the future?
This brings us to the most crucial question of all. Do similar Geopolitical choke points exist that are either hazardous or beneficial to India? This question immediately brings a disturbing image of the Siliguri Corridor or the so called Chicken’s Neck ,that crucial 22 km passageway that links the North East of India to the rest of the country. To make things more difficult for India, this narrow bottle neck has China to its North and Bangladesh to its South. Both countries that are inimical to our nation. Not so long ago the then Chief Adviser of the Interim Govt of Bangladesh, Muhammed Yunus had made no bones in stating the need to bring in India’s NE ( app 262,184 square kilometers) within the sphere of control of Bangladesh. Yunus is by no means a stupid man. He is a Nobel Laureatte and he, among others must be concerned about Global warming and the consequences it will have on his country. Global Warming will cause the Artic and Antarctic ice to melt; sea levels to raise and cause lowlying costal regions to be submerged. It is calculated that if the sea levels were to rise by a mere 1½ meters , 17% of Bangladesh will be inundated, displacing not less than 20 million of its citizens. Question of interest is where will these displaced people go? So putting 2 and 2 together it is not difficult to understand Yunus’s interest in India’s NE with its sparse man to land ratio. It is hoped that our policy makers, legislators and Governments are aware of this danger and its migratory potential that could change the whole demographic and geopolitical status of North East India
Not all choke points however are adversarial to India’s national interest. South East of the Indian Peninsular, sandwiched between the Northern tip of Indonesia and Malasia’s Southern most point, lies the Strait of Malacca through which approximately 94,000 vessels transit annually, carrying roughly 25–30% of global seaborne trade. This makes it the busiest maritime chokepoint in the world by tonnage with main users being China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN nations (including Thailand and the Philippines). Now just 74 odd km away from the Northen entrance of the strait sits the Great Nicobar island, an island belonging to India on which India has built and created INS Baaz a naval and air base. Nowhere is it claimed that India owns the Malacca Straits , but the simple fact that India has such a massive naval and air power presence just 74 km away , is enough for the world to recognize as to who has control over the Northern entrance of the straits. This control projects the power that India has over the maritime traffic that pass through the Malacca Straits and both friends as well as adversaries would do well to take note of this fact. By controlling a chokepoint in the Indo-Pacific, India also gains leverage in broader geopolitical conflicts (e.g., if pressure is exerted in the Himalayas, India can respond at sea).
In conclusion, one must admit three factors currently occupy the minds of most nations in the Indo-Pacific region. (1) Fear of Chinese expansionism (2) the undependantly of fickle US defence assurances (3) Emergence of India as a super power within the Indo Pacific region. (1) and (2) are apprehensions, that a changing World order can bring. Everyone knows that on their own it would be difficult if not impossible to stand up against such challenges. Coming together as a collective united force however is a different story. Against such a security background it would make complete sense for the ASEAN members to revisit and reassess the group’s Fundamental Principles and Objectives.
A re-evaluation of the Strait’s strategic value will not harm anyone. Instead it can help in redesigning ASEAN’s security structure. The Straits lie in India’s back yard i.e The Bay of Bengal, while the Andaman and Nicobar islands can act as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, guarding the Northen end of the Straits. An ASEAN membership for India and a security alliance between Malasia, Indonesia, Singapore and India to safeguard their own national interests through control of both the entry and exit points of the Straits will make any misadventure into the SE Asia region, by any power intoxicated country , a risk too perilous to undertake. And that is exactly what we want!
