By Patricia Mukhim

The period between the announcement of the election dates and the real voting day is always very exciting. For rural folks its carnival time! Men, women, young people offer themselves as volunteers; some with a genuine desire to help the candidate of their choice to win. They are true volunteers. Others see a big opportunity to make a quick buck because at this time no candidate will disappoint even a useless bugger who wishes to work for him from doing so. The word volunteer means someone who offers to work for a cause, pro-bono. A volunteer never counts the cost if he believes in the cause he/she is supporting. This is not true of volunteers during elections. Every volunteer expects to get his ‘bai sha- bai ja’ or ‘chai-pani ka paisa’ (some form of remuneration). Dipsomaniac volunteers have a field day as they get free booze and waltz their way back home in the evening without having convinced a single voter. But even they have their nuisance value because if they do not get their quota they will curse the candidate. No one wants a foul-mouthed curse; not before elections.

This is also the time when so-called national and regional television channels will land here like vultures wanting a byte here and a quote there; the saucier the better. If you don’t come down like a ton of bricks on a politician whom they have set their sights on (to crucify), you could be accused of playing favourites. I refuse to believe that all politicians are venal; that all journalists are scoundrels; that all civil society activists are incorruptible or that all bureaucrats have a personal agenda. The world continues to revolve because there is still a mix of good and bad and we survive because we hope against hope that the good trumps the bad.

What is it about the rural voters that they still believe in the election fanfare? Not every voter gets money or demands money. Some are genuinely interested in the election because they want to see change. Some vote on personal issues like being of the same clan, same religion, or because the candidate has rendered some help at a time of need. Still others vote for a particular candidate because they see him as a potential sucker whom they will milk for personal reasons for the next five years. When a rural voter says he want to see change he is not articulating some esoteric political ideology. He is not talking about a change of guard at the state level or to change an MLA who has not performed. He wants a change of face because the sitting MLA probably did not attend to his personal needs. (By the way the word ‘he’ here is gender neutral and is used for convenience only) It’s actually a very personal agenda that rural voters are pursuing. But these personal idiosyncracies often turn into collective peer pressure after the villagers have listened to fiery speeches from different candidates. The urban MLA candidate knows that speech-making is a waste of time; it cuts no ice with the voters. But in the villages and hamlets the gift of the gab is very crucial. After listening to one candidate voters get together to analyse the contents of the speech and rush off to their favoured candidate to inform him that his rival said the following and therefore he should try and cancel out everything that was said, in the next meeting.

Every home is a political forum at this point of time. No matter how indifferent we are, politics still matters; we are all secretly calculating who’s going to win and who will lose. And although we try to be objective our personal biases and prejudices do get in and queer our own clear thinking. Yesterday a group of citizens met with the Chief Electoral Officer of Meghalaya to remind him of article 49 (0) of the conduct of election rules which permits a voter to state that he/she is not inclined to vote for any of the listed candidates. When the choice is between a congenital defaulter (in other words an experienced devil), and a lesser evil who is yet to dirty his feet in the murky slush of Realpolitik but pans out to be a pedantic party-led, party-bred individual, then the elimination process is easy. Also in constituencies where all the known devils are in the fray, eliminating all requires no thinking. The problem is in voting rank newcomers who are full of promise – the promise to change things and to bring ‘development’ in the constituency. But no one has a clue what ‘development’ really means. One often wonders if these candidates from the rural outback of Meghalaya actually care about holistic and equitable development of the state. All they know is the map of the constituency. And this is what is crippling Meghalaya. It is good to ask for a change and I am all for change in electoral rules and more radical electoral reforms but we are at least two years late. The NGO leaders should have demanded this much ahead of the elections so the Election Commission of India (ECI) has enough time to push in the changes. Not that other people have not asked for this change. They have and were told that it would too expensive a process if in several constituencies the ECI has to arrange for a second or third re-poll because people did not vote for anyone. And how do we guarantee that everyone thinks alike? Even if 40% of voters do not vote for any of the candidates who filed their nominations, the other 60% would have voted this way or that way. In a ‘first past the post system’ where the percentage of votes obtained is immaterial the candidate who gets the most votes wins the day!

So the results of this election are not going to be earth-shattering by any yardstick. True there will be some surprises and many more Independents will carry the trophy but I can bet my last penny that they will all want to join the Congress. If they did want to take stand they would have asked for a ticket from the regional parties (UDP,HSPDP,KHNAM or its vestiges). Many of the Independents are sheer opportunists. They are in the fray to carve out an economic future for themselves by using the system to their advantage. Also there are far too many contractors, businessmen/women and some technocrats (PWD engineers, doctors et al)contesting. How does a PWD engineer who subsists on a monthly salary actually afford to throw money around for votes? But does it take rocket science to fathom how PWD/PHE engineers make a fortune from their Departments? Some of them actually get their wives to negotiate with the contractor the percentage from each contract work. Others are executing the contract work worth crore of rupees themselves but in someone else’s name. In Meghalaya it’s easy to tweak the system since we don’t pay income tax. Some PWD engineers are stinking rich and even educate their children abroad. Quite a few have bought second and third homes in the metros. But we don’t want to raise questions about these venalities. Our hands always point at politicians because they are soft targets.

So do we foresee change after February 28, 2013? Nope, it’s only wishful thinking. A candidate warned me not to get into psephologist mode because, he says, even the best political pundits can go very wrong. “And who are you in the media to make any forecast?” he stormed. But poll prediction is difficult to resist. We may not always be correct and I pray that we are proven wrong and that voters give politicians a run for their money. But alas! Meghalaya is a predictable state as far as elections go. Political instability is written into our DNA. So how do you change that? Salseng Marak once had a Congress majority government (1993-1998). But it was a missed opportunity because he and the government he headed virtually sleepwalked the entire five years. The result was a spiral in militant activities, violence and lawlessness. I don’t think that is how we want to define political stability. If at all political stability is to have meaning then it is for a single party rule where the government of the day has the spine to implement pro-people policies and not populist ones.

In the last government the differences between the coalition partners were glaring. There was no common minimum programme so every party made hay while the sun shone even while the environment was destroyed and rivers poisoned. The government did not lift a finger to address this major ecological devastation. We need a government that cares both for the environment and for its people. Looks like it’s a difficult ask. But let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope that nature will find a way of restoring itself by jettisoning and vomiting out the toxic elements from the political fray.

By Indranil Banerjea

Jaipur 2013 couldn’t have been any different. No sooner the doors closed, the only chinta — which pervades Congress minds — came to the fore: “Rahul Gandhi for PM.” Whatever the fate of lofty discussions the three Congress Chintan Shivirs in 15- years have, all invariably ended with the dynasts’ sigh of collective relief. It has not been so much about the topics, papers, discussions, outcome and declaration as about whether Congress fount is safe. In 1998 at Pachmarhi, Sonia was barely six months into her reign, and the Congress eagles were only interested in gauging if she was capable of leading the grand old party against the ever strengthening BJP. She provided only half an answer; and so within a year, CWC members Sharad Pawar and P.A. Sangma broke away to form the Nationalist Congress Party. A little later, Mulayam Singh Yadav did not hesitate in providing the unkind cut to her claims of support from 272 MPs. All other discussions and papers on political alignments and economy presented by such heavy weights, such as Arjun Singh and Manmohan Singh, were consigned to the basket.

By Shimla 2003, Congress had gained some ground, with governments in 15 states. Sonia was again the only point of interest. She appeared confident; and backed by her clique of Ahmed Patel, Arjun Singh, Natwar Singh and Manmohan Singh, she declared that the party was open to alliances. From an arrogant position in 1998, when it was declared the “natural party of governance and coalitions a passing phase” sidelining Pawar, she had come around to accepting that breaking bread with those she didn’t like was also necessary. Political compulsions are different from personal ones. It paved the way for UPA-I.

Cut to Jaipur 2013, and after nine years in power, it is time to pass the baton to Rahul. Of the 350 chosen ones, there are 167 of his hand-picked under 45 Youth Congress who are not avidly discussing Lokpal, or women’s reservation, not even how to handle flash mobs, but whether the dynasty can throw up someone who will save them from Naredra Modi. Someone to deliver them from the middle class anger at rising prices of fuel and food, protests against everything — from corruption to rape, and a clueless government.

Given that fresh Assembly elections are due in Rajasthan later this year, and chief minister Ashok Gehlot faces an uphill task, the choice of Jaipur for the Congress’ Chintan Shivir was well-conceived. Having come to power in 2008 thanks to the anti-Vasundhara Raje dissidence of senior RSS/BJP leaders, Gehlot will need all the help he can get to retain the state for the Congress. Yet, the Congress’ Chinta — the “n” really being superfluous here — is unlikely to lessen a wee-bit by its deliberations at the Jaipur Shivir. The party faces ever increasing troubles in the run-up to the polls due in as many as ten states and union territories this year and the general elections next year.

It was symptomatic of the seemingly insurmountable problems that lie ahead for the Grand Old Party that on the eve of the Jaipur meet the smart-alecks in the government jacked up the price of diesel, the poor man’s fuel, by nearly Rs. 10 a litre. More than ever before, the aam admi relies on public transport, which, being a bulk purchaser of diesel will have to pay the market price to the oil marketing companies. Unless various state-run transport companies are allowed to pass the burden of additional costs to the commuters, these will further sink into the red. Ditto for the goods transport which, in turn would result in higher retail prices. With consumer inflation already in double digits, the diesel price hike is bound to make things harder for the common man.

Quite clearly, the party is trapped in a cul-de-sac of its own making. Having created the economic mess in the last four years, it now feared that things could go out of control unless urgent corrective steps were taken immediately. P. Chidambaram’s being the most forceful voice in the government and the party he could not be unconcerned about the high fiscal deficit. The latest to warn of a downgrade of India’s sovereign rating was the credit rating agency Fitch.

Unless the twin deficits are reined in, the Congress will have very little to play around with when Chidambaram presents his annual budget next month. His problem is that without the budget offering fresh goodies to the voting classes, the party can have no hope in hell of winning an adequate number of seats in the 16th Lok Sabha. A tally below 150 would make it difficult for it to reject the ambitions of the third front leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav and even Mayawati for the formation of a non-Congress, non-BJP government. But where is the money to come from for new freebies for vote-buying?

Therefore, the so-called Chintan Shivir can only result in altering internal party equations, maybe giving the Rahul Brigade a bigger say in its affairs, but it can offer little solace to the government. And on its part, there is little that the government can offer to help the Congress lull the voters into voting for it yet again after such a disastrous stint in power. Even Chidambaram knows the terrible costs of adding further to the basket of freebies on the eve of the polls. Economic mismanagement has slowly but steadily devalued the rupee; it continues to be under pressure as foreign investors shun India. A huge outgo on the ill-conceived food entitlement scheme can worsen the nation’s finances. Truly, Chidambaram has an uphill task. He has to try hard to ensure that India’s sovereign rating does not get reduced to the junk status. He has also to appease the Congress leaders baying for him to open the purse-strings so that they can buy the voters and retain power for the third successive term. These are mutually contradictory objectives. No Chintan Shivir can reconcile the irreconcilables, never mind the too-clever-by-half attempts to paper over these contradictions in Jaipur. Nothing seems pink for the Congress in the Pink City and further afield in the country as a whole. INAV