A grave provocation has come from China, and how India will handle this is worth watching. The killing of three Indian soldiers by Chinese troops in Ladakh on Monday night came at the height of weeks of face-off in the region. This also saw direct engagements on May 6-7 there, followed by another confrontation in Sikkim on the eastern side of the 4,000 km border/LoC three days later. A bigger confrontation was in the offing and how far this will go is anybody’s guess.
The central provocation for China is India’s energetic implementation of some road projects to facilitate easy reach of military manpower and material to the LoC and regions skirting it. That the Chinese threat comes at a time of the pandemic is worrying. The red dragon has been flexing its muscles and attempting to nibble away Indian land through consistent informal aggression along the border. China is laying claim to Arunachal Pradesh, calling it southern Tibet and its territory, even as Tibet itself is China’s usurped land.
China’s aim is to deter India from its pursuit of road development etc., but it may have other motives too. China is nobody’s friend, and it single-mindedly pursues its goals. It keeps Pakistan on its side to needle India. Sri Lanka too is beholden to China now hence its ally. At the same time, China is now on the defensive over the way it spread the Covid virus and imperiled the entire world, impacting both health and the economy and causing millions of deaths. But China’s economy also is bound to take a hit from the pandemic’s internal impact although it has enough ways and means to overcome such crises as it has amassed adequate wealth to buy up global support where needed. China’s military’s strength is five times that of India, and any military fight will not be on equal terms. However, India too cannot be bullied and China cannot expect to get away with a military confrontation because its markets in India will take a hit. Hence, China cannot afford to burn all its bridges.
The security scenario around India is grim. Pakistan is the enemy of all enemies. Added to this is Nepal, which has strayed into the Chinese orbit and moved away from India. Afghanistan is slowly changing colour. Sri Lanka is friendlier towards China than with India. Maldives too is no longer a trustworthy friend. Only the Islamic nation of Bangladesh is by far the closest ally of India apart from Bhutan. All these imply that India has to mend its diplomatic relations with its immediate neighbours even as it builds its military strength.