BRUSSELS: NATO commanders face a tough balancing act during the bloody battle for Muammar Gaddafi’s last strongholds, Sirte and Bani Walid.
NATO allies would like to let the National Transitional Council (NTC) claim victory in these battles and war for itself. That would enhance the council’s legitimacy as the new ruler of Libya after Gaddafi’s four decades in power, and bolster the chances of a stable democracy taking root in the country.
But the European governments that led NATO’s air campaign in Libya also need to remain long enough and engaged enough to make sure the success so far is not diminished by a messy withdrawal.
If NATO quietly stepped aside but fighting restarted, that would diminish Europe’s standing in Libya and tarnish a campaign that has been seen as a success for Europeans.
To achieve this, experts say, NATO forces are keen to cut back the bombing campaign that was instrumental in giving the NTC a military edge. Instead, NATO will likely step up other operations such as surveillance and air support to eliminate any remaining weaponry that could threaten peaceful transition. NATO declines to comment on its immediate operations.
”As we approach the endgame, it is very clear NATO’s role will become very much the eyes and ears of the NTC, rather than the hammer,” said Tim Ripley, a London-based military expert at Jane’s Defence Weekly.
”The next phase in Libya will amount to a more deliberate mopping up of the country as the NTC moves to establish their control and presence.”
One problem is that Gaddafi’s remaining loyalists are in Bani Walid and Sirte, which are densely populated. That makes it risky to try to bomb them because of the danger of civilian casualties.
NATO, argues Shashank Joshi, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute in London, lacks sufficient intelligence to allow it to pinpoint targets in Sirte and Bani Walid without endangering civilians.
”In Tripoli, you had rebels, you had (Western) special forces, networks of resistance..” (UNI)