By BK Chum
India has to monitor border situation closely
Will the steep low in Pakistan-US relations impact India’s –particularly of Jammu and Kashmir’s security environment? Will it also have its fallout on India-Pakistan peace process? The questions call for perceiving the possible scenarios that may emerge on the two fronts.
One of the immediate consequences of the strained US-Pakistan relations will be that the Kashmir issue will be further pushed to the backstage of Pakistan politics. The infiltrations and terror violence in the state have already registered a sharp decline over the past couple of years and the issue no longer occupies the centre stage in Pakistan.
Not long ago, Pakistani rulers used to exploit the Kashmir issue to divert their people’s anger whenever the country faced serious internal problems. The establishment would raise the level of infiltrations into India particularly in Jammu and Kashmir despite the international opposition to its exporting terrorism to foreign lands.
But the situation showed signs of a change in the Pakistani rulers attitude in the outgoing decade when India and Pakistan were twice close to solving the Kashmir problem. First it was during the 1999 Vajpayee’s Lahore bus journey climaxed by his closed-door agreement with Nawaz Sharif. Then it was when Manmohan Singh and Pervez Musharraf almost reached an agreement and its modalities.
But both the efforts were torpedoed first by the Musharraf’s 1999 Kargil misadventure and then by escalation of the ISI-sponsored terror violence in Jammu and Kashmir and in other parts of India.
With the home grown terrorists intensifying their violence in the past couple of years, the attention of Pakistani rulers was diverted to countering the indigenous terrorists depriving them, at least partially, of their Kashmir weapon they had been employing for diverting Pakistanis attention from the country’s serious internal problems. The result was that except occasional reiteration of its combatant stand on Kashmir, the issue lost much of its focus in the peoples’ eyes, even if temporarily. .
The latest downswing in the US-Pakistan relations has polarized the Pakistan’s public opinion against Americans further pushing the Kashmir issue to the background. The US’s senior most army hawk Admiral Mullen and others last month warned Pakistan that if the Pakistan’s ISI does not act against the Haqqani network based in North Waziristan’s tribal belt bordering Afghanistan, the US will take unilateral army action against the terrorist outfit. Mullen charged the ISI using the Haqqani network for its proxy war against American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s all-powerful Army Chief General Kayani held an unscheduled meeting of the Corps Commanders to consider the developing serious situation. The meeting gave out that the Pakistan Army would not act against the Haqqani group.
In view of the US and Pakistan’s political and strategic compulsions the above scenario may, however, undergo a change. It will be difficult for the economically ruined Pakistan to survive without American funds and arms aid. It cannot afford to annoy the US by converting its all-weather friendship with China into an anti-American strategic front.
On the other hand, two main factors will force US not to go too far in annoying Pakistan. The most important is the danger of its arms supply routes to the NATO and American forces in Afghanistan getting blocked by an annoyed Pakistan. The second factor is America would not like to create a situation which pushes Pakistan into China lap to the disadvantage of America’s strategic interests in the region which is going to be a theatre of major rivalry between the US and China because of its rich mineral and other natural resources.
It is not without reason that both the US and Pakistan have started showing signs of softening their confrontationist postures. Even as General Kayani, after the Core Commanders meeting, announced that the Pakistan army would not act against the Haqqani group, Pakistan’s ruling and the opposition parties at their last week’s meeting while criticizing the US for its attacks on Paksitan, called for a dialogue with “our own people” in the country’s restive tribal north-west (the Haqqani network-based Waziristan).
On the other hand, in reversal of his army’s hardliners attitude, President Obama has given Islamabad the benefit of doubt from charges of directly sponsoring terrorism, telling a radio interview that “the intelligence is not as clear as we might like in terms of what exactly that relationship (between ISI and the Haqqani group) is. But my attitude is whether there is active engagement with Haqqani on the part of the Pakistanis, or rather just passively allowing them to operate —-they have got to take care of this problem.”
The above perceived scenario may prompt Pakistan to exercise a greater restraint, even if temporary, on India-specific jihadi groups, like the LeT, from undertaking major cross-border operations. There may also be further lowering of the level of peddling in Kashmir. To expand bilateral India-Pakistan trade, Pakistan has since agreed to grant to India the status of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) to India.
However, in view of Pakistan’s past record on reconciliatory moves, Pakistan’s offering of an olive branch may only be tactical but it can help to create an atmosphere conducive for normalizing India-Pakistan relations and also for the peace process in Jammu and Kashmir. The perception may appear too optimistic but optimism is the elixir of life.
In the backdrop of the above perceived scenario, New Delhi will, however, have to adopt an approach which helps normalize India-Pakistan’s strained relations. But keeping in view Pakistan’s record of duplicity, New Delhi cannot afford to down its guard in its dealings with Pakistan. (IPA Service)