Wind of peace blowing in Assam
By Barun Das Gupta
The second round of official level talks by the Centre and the Assam Government with the ULFA leaders were held in October. The third round is expected to be held in the third week of this month, probably on the 18th. But the media in Assam is showing no interest in the ongoing peace talks. The people also seem to have lost interest in the talks. The reason, observers say, is that the people have realized that the ULFA is a dying force, notwithstanding the occasional verbal tirades and antics of the anti-talk faction of the outfit led by Paresh Barua.
Significantly, sovereignty for Assam does not figure in the charter of demands that the ULFA has submitted to the Government. The emphasis is now on amending the Constitution to give Assam greater control over its natural resources, in revenue generation, in the participation of the State in the planning process, in ensuring ‘demographic security’ for the Assamese people and finally, in balanced and accelerated development. ‘Demographic security’ relates to the fear of the Assamese-speaking people that continued illegal immigration from Bangladesh and legal migration from other States of India may eventually make them a minority in their own State.
And here lies the rub. Do the ‘Assamese-speaking’ people constitute the majority of the State’s population? Years ago, the late Gaurishankar Bhattacharyya, one of the most venerated political leaders of Assam and a pioneer of the communist movement in the North-East, told this writer that Assam’s peculiar speciality was that this was “a State in which all the minorities together constitute the majority”.
Taken separately, the Assamese Hindus, the Assamese Muslims, the Bengali Hindus, the Bengali Muslims, the plains tribals, the hill tribals, the tea garden population of tribal origin who were brought in the nineteenth century by British tea planters from neighbouring provinces do not, by themselves, make a majority. But any two or three of these groups together will form a majority.
The number of hard core armed rebels with Paresh Barua now is estimated to be between 150 and 200. But the number fluctuates. Some surrender. Some desert. And their place is taken up by new recruits. They are not paid salaries but are allowed to extort money to support themselves as well as contribute to the outfit’s coffers. But Barua is reportedly maintaining contact with some rebel groups operating in Manipur. He is keeping touch with the Maoists also. Some twenty-five Maoists are reported to have come back to Assam after taking training in ULFA camps in Myanmar.
No doubt, the people want a political settlement between the Government and the ULFA so that insurgency does not raise its head again and disrupt normal social life. They now realize that a sovereign Assam is neither realizable nor desirable. The top leadership of ULFA including its chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa and his senior colleagues have been freed from jail. They do not want to go back to the jungle again. Paresh Barua is reportedly moving between China and Myanmar. He no longer commands any public support in Assam nor has he the capacity to revive the insurgency movement. If he does not come back and join the peace process, he may have to end his life in self-exile just as the legendary Naga leader AZ Phizo, the leader of the armed movement for Naga sovereignty in the 1950s, and in a sense the father of all secessionist movements in the North-East. He ended his life in London in self-exile in 1990.
The wind of peace is blowing elsewhere in Assam, too. In the Karbi Anglong Hill District, the United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), an insurgent group, had been active for over a decade. It was formed in December, 1999, following the merger of two terrorist outfits, the Karbi National Volunteers (KNF) and the Karbi People’s Front (KPF). The UPDS leaders signed a tripartite peace accord with the Centre and the Assam Government on November 25. After coming back to the district, UPDS leaders were given a warm reception by as huge gathering of all sections of people – Karbis and non-Karbis. Other insurgent groups in Assam are also suing for peace. After the UPDS, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is trying to reach an understanding with that faction of Bodo rebels which is still fighting for Bodo sovereignty.
The public mood is for peace, progress and prosperity. The nature of political movements is also changing. Now movements are being launched against displacement of farmers, against construction of big dams and hydel power stations in Arunachal Pradesh, upstream of Assam. As recently as November 30, clashes took place in North Lakhimpur district in Upper Assam between agitators of the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samity and the Takam Mishing Porin Kebang (TMPK), an organization of the Mishing tribe of Arunachal. They had gathered in strength to prevent the arrival of turbines for the Lower Subasiri Hydro-Electric Power Project in Arunachal.
The two organisations – one of Assam and the other of Arunachal – are jointly conducting the movement against a hydel project which they believe will cause irreparable damage to the ecology and environment of both the States. The political agenda is changing – from an elusive sovereignty to issues of development. (IPA)