Why Rahul and Digvijay are issuing desperate statements?
By Upendra Prasad
Just before the voting of first phase of election, Rahul Gandhi held a press conference in Varanasi to declare that he did not care for the results of Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. He went on to say that he would continue to work for the State even after the UP elections. These statements were really desperate statements issued by a leader, who had put all his prestige on stake in the Assembly election of the most populous state of India. A journalist asked him about his much talked Mission 2012. Rahul shot back that this term Mission 2012 was made by media, it was not a term created by him.
After Rahul, it was the term of Digvijay Singh. He announced that there might be President Rule after the election. The question arises as to why Rahul and Digvijay are issuing such statements? The reason is not difficult to find out. The Congress strategy in Uttar Pradesh election has lost its direction. Though, there is a lot of coverage of Congress leader’s campaign and statements by the media, but on ground level Congress is finding itself bereft of public support. Now the Congress leaders have realized that their Mission 2012 has failed miserably. Rahul Gandhi knows that he has to face adverse media reactions about his leadership capability after UP elections, so in advance he is making it known to the people that he does not care for the results. The question is if Rahul does not care for the Congress result of UP elections, then who would care it?
In fact the Congress campaign had lost its direction, when Rahul Gandhi dubbed people of Uttar Pradesh as beggars. The Congress strategy to rope in Muslim support by giving a sub quota of OBC Muslims had backfired. With the voting of first phase, it has become amply clear that Muslims have turned against Congress and they are now solidly behind Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, Congress got substantial votes of Muslim community, but it has failed to retain that support. By promising quota to Muslims, Congress leaders were trying to consolidate that support, but the strategy adopted by it was misconceived. Muslims wanted quota as per Rangnath Mishra Commission, which had recommended quota on the basis of Muslim as a community. On the other hand, the Union government gave sub quota to those Muslim Castes, who were already getting quota in the 27 percent scheme. Those Muslims, who were outside the scheme of 27 percent, remained outside it. This created a backlash among the Asharaf Muslims like Saiyyad, Shekh, Mughal and Pathan. Jat Muslims and Rajput Muslims, too, did not get anything and turned against Congress.
These Asharaf Muslims may be less in number within their community, but they are opinion makers of their co religious people. Hurt by non implementation of Rangnath Mishra Commission, they spread the message that even OBC Muslims are going to lose in 4.5 percent scheme of minority’s quota, because they would be facing the better educated and qualified Christian, Sikh and Jain OBCs. In this way, the whole of Muslim community turned against Congress. What Congress has got in the form of Muslim support in 2009 Lok Sabha election was lost. Salaman Khurshid realized it and to reduce the damage he announced that Muslims would be given 9 percent of quota, if it his party wins UP elections. The trend of first phase poll suggests that the trick of Mr. Khurshid has failed to enthuse Muslims and they had deserted Congress en masse and consolidated behind Mulayam Singh.
The announcement of 9 percent quota of Muslims out of 27 percent had another pitfall. It had antagonized the numerically superior OBCs. Mr. Khurshid along with some other Congress leaders played another trick to get the votes of non Yadava OBCs. That was the promise of the subdivision of Hindu OBCs into OBC and MBC. The Congress leader again failed to understand the caste dynamics of OBCs. They were trying to get OBCs votes by projecting leaders like Beni Prasad Verma and SP Jaiswal. But the Congress leaders failed to comprehend that Kurmis and OBCs Baniyas in UP do not form MBC. Kurmis, too had voted enthusiastically for Congress in the last Lok Sabha poll, but the subdivision of 27 percent and further division of OBCs quota started turning them against Congress. Initially only BJP was opposing 4.5 percent minority quota, later on Mayawati, too, understood its implications for OBCs voters. So she also criticized that decision in her campaign and wanted Muslim quota outside the scheme of 27 percent. Fearing that BJP will mobilize OBCs support under its banner, Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar of JD(U), too, after initial hesitation have come against the subdivision of 27 percent meant for OBCs. Sharad Yadav is charging the Congress for dividing OBCs on communal line and creating environment for communal riots. In this way, Congress has left almost alone on the issue of 4.5 percent Minorities quota and lost not only Muslim, but even OBCs support.
Numerically high in Uttar Pradesh, Brahmins have no hesitation in supporting Congress, but they would not like to support the losing candidates. Hence bereft of Muslims and OBC supports, Congress can not get Brahmins support as well. Congress leaders must have got the feedback of the plight of their party candidates on ground level. That is why they are getting nervous. Rahul’s statement of not caring for the result of the election only shows his nervousness. It was an unusual act of Rahul to address a press conference in the midst of election campaign, when his election speech was widely covered by media. He needed to address the Press only to make things clear that a poor result for Congress should not be construed as his personal defeat, because his fight would continue even after the UP elections. The statement of Digvijay Singh forecasting a President Rule after election is intend to boost the morale of those Congress workers, who might be feeling nervous in the battle ground. Digvijay wants to convey to those Congress workers, whether party loses or win, Lucknow would be ruled by Congress. (IPA Service)