By Barun Das Gupta
KOLKATA: The civil government that came to power in Myanmar after the general elections of 2010 has been slowly veering away from the old path. Efforts are on to make peace with the ethnic rebels who had been fighting the junta government for decades. The new government signed a ceasefire agreement with the Shan rebels in December 2011. Next month, January 2012, it signed another ceasefire agreement with the Karen rebels. The agreements have created favourable conditions for taking action against rebel groups of northeast India operating from Myanmar. The situation has become conducive also for bringing India into closer contact with her South and South-East Asian neighbours because the path to such contacts lies through Myanmar.
Ethnic rebellions have been going on in two strategic locations in the north and south of the country. The Shan State in the south borders China on the north, Laos on the east and Thailand on the south. It is one of the largest of the fourteen administrative divisions of the Myanmar, with an area of 1,55,800 sq. km. The Karen State in the north has an area of 30,383 sq. km. The Karen National Union (KNU) raised the banner of revolt in 1949, and had been fighting a battle for autonomy since then. In the Shan State there were as many as seventeen groups fighting the government.
The peace accord with the Karens and the Shans, it is believed, will enable Myanmar to take more effective action against the Naga, Manipuri and Assamese insurgent groups that have been operating from Myanmar. Earlier this month, when the whole gamut of Indo-Myanmar bilateral relations came up for discussion at the 12th India-Myanmar Foreign Office consultations held in New Delhi, India again pressed the Myanmar authorities to crack down on these insurgent outfits. It is hoped that after making peace with internal rebellions it will be easier for Myanmar to turn attention to Indian rebels.
Coming to terms with the Shans was also necessary in the interest of constructing the India-Myanmar-Thailand 3200 km long trilateral highway, which is scheduled to be completed by 2016. It is being built with assistance from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. India has given a loan of $500 million to Myanmar, a part of which will be used for funding this project. The building of the highway arises out of the imperatives of India’s ‘Look East’ policy. In fact, it will be part of a more ambitious ‘India-Mekong’ corridor, which will connect India to the fast-growing markets of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.
Today, a wide range of Chinese goods – from motorcycles to medicines to electronic goods – find their way to markets in other countries through Myanmar. Take Jiego, for instance. Situated on the south of the Shweli River in Yunan province and surrounded on three sides by Myanmar, this tiny market town is a bustling centre for export of Chinese goods. The lop-sided nature of Sino-Myanmar trade is evident from the fact that in 2009, Chinese exports to Myanmar were estimated at over $2 billion, while imports from Myanmar were worth just around six a half million dollars. The opening of the trilateral highway is expected to boost Indian exports to south-Asian countries in a big way. The primary beneficiary will be the seven northeastern states of India.
China’s aggressive posturing over the South China Sea claiming exclusive rights to it has brought it in conflict with several Asian countries like India, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam. At the same time China is also trying to spread its influence to the neighbouring countries through trade and economic assistance. The completion of the trilateral highway will give India a level playing field to widen and deepen its trade relations with her neighbours.
Sino-Vietnamese relations continue to be strained. For example, in September, Chinese president Hu Jintao met his Vietnamese counterpart Truong Tan Sang on the sidelines of the APEC summit at Vladivostok in Russia. After the meeting, Chinese press agency Xinhua put a report on the meeting at which Hu was said to have put forward a three-point proposal to strengthen Sino-Vietnamese ties. Intriguingly, there was no official version of the meeting from the Vietnamese side. Relations between India and Vietnam, on the other hand, have continued to develop and deepen. Trade relations apart, the two countries entered into a Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2007, under which defence ties have grown into strategic ties.
The India-Myanmar-Thailand highway and later the India-Mekong corridor will help to bring the economies of the countries of this region closer together. A strong South Asia will be a bulwark for peace and against interference from global players. The peaceful conditions that have now been created in Myanmar will contribute to the process of regional development.