By Indranil Banerjea
Jaipur 2013 couldn’t have been any different. No sooner the doors closed, the only chinta — which pervades Congress minds — came to the fore: “Rahul Gandhi for PM.” Whatever the fate of lofty discussions the three Congress Chintan Shivirs in 15- years have, all invariably ended with the dynasts’ sigh of collective relief. It has not been so much about the topics, papers, discussions, outcome and declaration as about whether Congress fount is safe. In 1998 at Pachmarhi, Sonia was barely six months into her reign, and the Congress eagles were only interested in gauging if she was capable of leading the grand old party against the ever strengthening BJP. She provided only half an answer; and so within a year, CWC members Sharad Pawar and P.A. Sangma broke away to form the Nationalist Congress Party. A little later, Mulayam Singh Yadav did not hesitate in providing the unkind cut to her claims of support from 272 MPs. All other discussions and papers on political alignments and economy presented by such heavy weights, such as Arjun Singh and Manmohan Singh, were consigned to the basket.
By Shimla 2003, Congress had gained some ground, with governments in 15 states. Sonia was again the only point of interest. She appeared confident; and backed by her clique of Ahmed Patel, Arjun Singh, Natwar Singh and Manmohan Singh, she declared that the party was open to alliances. From an arrogant position in 1998, when it was declared the “natural party of governance and coalitions a passing phase” sidelining Pawar, she had come around to accepting that breaking bread with those she didn’t like was also necessary. Political compulsions are different from personal ones. It paved the way for UPA-I.
Cut to Jaipur 2013, and after nine years in power, it is time to pass the baton to Rahul. Of the 350 chosen ones, there are 167 of his hand-picked under 45 Youth Congress who are not avidly discussing Lokpal, or women’s reservation, not even how to handle flash mobs, but whether the dynasty can throw up someone who will save them from Naredra Modi. Someone to deliver them from the middle class anger at rising prices of fuel and food, protests against everything — from corruption to rape, and a clueless government.
Given that fresh Assembly elections are due in Rajasthan later this year, and chief minister Ashok Gehlot faces an uphill task, the choice of Jaipur for the Congress’ Chintan Shivir was well-conceived. Having come to power in 2008 thanks to the anti-Vasundhara Raje dissidence of senior RSS/BJP leaders, Gehlot will need all the help he can get to retain the state for the Congress. Yet, the Congress’ Chinta — the “n” really being superfluous here — is unlikely to lessen a wee-bit by its deliberations at the Jaipur Shivir. The party faces ever increasing troubles in the run-up to the polls due in as many as ten states and union territories this year and the general elections next year.
It was symptomatic of the seemingly insurmountable problems that lie ahead for the Grand Old Party that on the eve of the Jaipur meet the smart-alecks in the government jacked up the price of diesel, the poor man’s fuel, by nearly Rs. 10 a litre. More than ever before, the aam admi relies on public transport, which, being a bulk purchaser of diesel will have to pay the market price to the oil marketing companies. Unless various state-run transport companies are allowed to pass the burden of additional costs to the commuters, these will further sink into the red. Ditto for the goods transport which, in turn would result in higher retail prices. With consumer inflation already in double digits, the diesel price hike is bound to make things harder for the common man.
Quite clearly, the party is trapped in a cul-de-sac of its own making. Having created the economic mess in the last four years, it now feared that things could go out of control unless urgent corrective steps were taken immediately. P. Chidambaram’s being the most forceful voice in the government and the party he could not be unconcerned about the high fiscal deficit. The latest to warn of a downgrade of India’s sovereign rating was the credit rating agency Fitch.
Unless the twin deficits are reined in, the Congress will have very little to play around with when Chidambaram presents his annual budget next month. His problem is that without the budget offering fresh goodies to the voting classes, the party can have no hope in hell of winning an adequate number of seats in the 16th Lok Sabha. A tally below 150 would make it difficult for it to reject the ambitions of the third front leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav and even Mayawati for the formation of a non-Congress, non-BJP government. But where is the money to come from for new freebies for vote-buying?
Therefore, the so-called Chintan Shivir can only result in altering internal party equations, maybe giving the Rahul Brigade a bigger say in its affairs, but it can offer little solace to the government. And on its part, there is little that the government can offer to help the Congress lull the voters into voting for it yet again after such a disastrous stint in power. Even Chidambaram knows the terrible costs of adding further to the basket of freebies on the eve of the polls. Economic mismanagement has slowly but steadily devalued the rupee; it continues to be under pressure as foreign investors shun India. A huge outgo on the ill-conceived food entitlement scheme can worsen the nation’s finances. Truly, Chidambaram has an uphill task. He has to try hard to ensure that India’s sovereign rating does not get reduced to the junk status. He has also to appease the Congress leaders baying for him to open the purse-strings so that they can buy the voters and retain power for the third successive term. These are mutually contradictory objectives. No Chintan Shivir can reconcile the irreconcilables, never mind the too-clever-by-half attempts to paper over these contradictions in Jaipur. Nothing seems pink for the Congress in the Pink City and further afield in the country as a whole. INAV