Egypt, epicentre of the Arab world, is in political chaos. Peace protests in Cairo to mark two years of the culmination of the movement that removed Hosni Mubarak turned into bloody battle in Port Said following the sentencing to death of twenty odd football fans. These fans had incited riots which killed more than 70 people at a match last year. Later Mohammed Morsi declared an emergency and deployed the military in the cities of Port Said, Ismalia and Suez in order to safeguard the shipping line so vital to the Egyptian economy. But defiance continued. Army Chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has warned that the situation can lead to a collapse of the state. The country is still divided and the Muslim Brotherhood’s opponents want Morsi’s removal. The President’s power base is gradually weakening. The transition to civilian rule is coming about in phases. Last year the Army handed over power but Morsi belied expectations. The November decree gave him virtually absolute powers. The imposition of the new constitution in a Islamist-dominated legislature created resentment. Morsi’s resort to military power in Port Said and Suez has aggravated smouldering discontent.
All this does not mean a going back on the Egyptian revolution. But the Brotherhood backed by the Salafists may cause a drift away from secular liberalism. The Army continues to wield clout. Large parts of the Arab world are in turmoil. President Assad cracks the whip in Damascus while warlords are defying the government in Libya. Mohammed Morsi sits on top of a volcano and if he cannot pacify his opponents, it can erupt any day. The Western powers will have to do some rethinking about West Asia. The UN has its hands tied with Russia and China blocking its intervention and the US keen on withdrawal as soon as possible.