By HH Mohrmen
Phew! Now that the polling is over the candidates and their supporters can heave a sigh of relief and wait for the judgment day. The candidates no matter how strong or weak a contender they are to the seat, are now all busy calculating their chances of winning the election and till the D day arrives and until the result is declared; everybody is a winner. This is the best time and a good situation to be in for the candidates as well as their supporters as it creates a different kind of euphoria with everybody winning and no loser.
An educated guess gives one a clear picture that no matter how many times during election campaign parties claim to be able to form the government on their own, the truth of the matter is that no party; not even the Congress will get a clear mandate after February 28. It does not take an expert eye to see that the state is yet again going to see a hung assembly where no party will be able to form a government on its own. This is one disadvantage of the multi- party parliamentary democracy. There are too many parties to choose from and because of the problem of plenty, people end up choosing too many disparate candidates. . Hence the multi party democratic system is also responsible for making people give a fractured mandate after the election.
A guesstimate of the shape of things to come is that this too will be a hung assembly since no single party will be able to form a government on its own this time too. So, the single largest party needs to seek support from like-minded parties or individuals to form the next government. Only time will tell if major parties in the state are willing to eat humble pie and join hands to form yet another government together. But there is a price to be paid for a party to enter into alliance with the other parties. The case in point is the recent alliance to form the MUA government which is going to hit the United Democratic Party the hardest. If the UDP is not going to win even the same number of seats that it had won in the 2008 election, then this is a clear mandate from the people that they do not support the party’s decision to ally with the Congress to form the MUA government.
The fractured mandate will also be an opportunity for the Independent candidates as they will have a major role to play in the forming of the next government. This 2013 general election to the state assembly is unique in the sense that there are 122 candidates contesting as Independents. This is a very large number indeed. The figure is more than double the numbers of seat in the assembly. And since there are many candidates contesting as independents there is a likelihood of many independent candidates being elected to the new house. The chorus of the election song of one independent candidate in Jaintia hills says something like this in Pnar “Independent ka party kawa laitluid,” which literarily translated means, ‘Independent a free part.’ The point is if many independents come up successfully after February 28, (which in all likelihood is going to happen considering that there are many independent candidates in the fray) then there is a possibility that they can also form a group or a party of their own and unite as independent MLAs to jointly decide on their next course of action starting from the process of forming the next government in the state.
The bandh called by the banned militant outfit in the state is also in a way; a kind an evidence of the mandate that people of the Khasi Jaintia hills gave to the leaders of the group. Judging from the over-all tun-out the bandh did not work. Indeed the bandh called by the HNLC at this juncture very unfortunate. It raises a fundamental point about the outfit’s disdain for democracy. If the majority of people of the state chose to exercise their right to vote, it is very undemocratic for the HNLC to stop them from doing so.Is this bandh not aimed at stopping people from exercising their right to vote? But the people have given a clear message to the HNLC and the message is that they don’t want anyone taking away their democratic right.
There was a large turn out and people defied the bandh called by the militant group. The other pertinent question is whether the large turn-out of voters is also a mandate against militant organization. It is clear that the HNLC’s influence on the people has gradually diminished. And if the organization continues to act in a manner which is against the interests of the large section of the people then very soon it will fade into oblivion.
Another point that the HNLC needs to take into consideration is that there is huge population of young and first time voters. These young new voters do not really know much about the HNLC. If at all there is anything they know anything about the militant outfit it is about the frequent bandhs that the organization calls during Independence Day and Republic day. For the young electors HNLC is an organization which they only hear about in the media. They cannot find much information about the outfit from anywhere. It is therefore a vague and an obscure kind of an organization and obviously the HNLC has lost touch with the young generation of the state. For this young population, HNLC only exists in the realm of history which they can collect from the newspaper reports which is again a difficult and arduous work.
One would expect that with the help of the internet, the HNLC would be able to make its presence in the cyber world where the young people live, but that did not happen. The HNLC website which would have been a good tool for the organization to share the group’s information with the netizens, has been banned by the powers that be. Even the facebook account of the Sainkupar Nongtraw; the publicity in charge of the organization is nowhere to be seen on facebook now. The organization is in a difficult situation today. If it continues to dictate terms which are against the interests of the common people its chances of regaining the popularity and support that it had during its heydays will be over. And if the militant organization is losing touch with the young generation then it will very soon become history.
The mandate of the people on February 23 is not just about electing the 60 legislators to the state assembly. It is also a firm decision taken by the people to defy the HNLC bandh. This reflects the outlook that people have o is also a reflection of kind of outlook that the people have of the organization. Perhaps this is the only clear mandate that the people gave on February 23. 2013.