The DMK has pulled out of the UPA II. DMK supremo M.Karunanidhi had threatened to do it before and in the case of FDI in multibrand retail, differences between his party and the Congress had sharpened. With the DMK withdrawal, the market tumbled despite the RBI’s rate cut. The DMK has conjured up the National Right to Homestead Bill with the ensuing general election in mind. But the contentious issue is the plight of Tamils in Sri Lanka. AIADMK leader J.Jayalalitha has been whipping up popular hysteria on the matter. Karunanidhi has also been adamant on this issue. He had shown his party’s ability to use its bargaining position on disinvestment to persuade the Centre to support the human rights resolution against Sri Lanka in the UN last year. It now demands that the Centre introduces amendments in the resolution that would condemn Sri Lanka for genocide. It also wants the setting up of a new international commission to investigate war crimes in Sri Lanka.
Does the DMK now pose a threat to the UPA II? Such a role in the 2014 Parliamentary elections will not serve the cause of India or Indian Tamils. Diplomats in Delhi have decided to take a soft line and sign a document which will not adversely affect India’s relations with Sri Lanka, its largest trading partner in South Asia. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Party pulled out of the alliance six months ago. The Teesta waters discord with Bangladesh was a major factor. The Congress has to make friends with coalition allies and at the same time maintain friendly relations with neighbouring countries. The UPA II is fragmented and an early general election need not be ruled out. The Congress leans on the volatile support of the SP and the BSP which will now drive a hard bargain. However, only time will tell whether the DMK sticks to its decision or not.