By Barun Das Gupta
Early this month, Guwahati was abuzz with the rumour that some Congress MLAs were busy collecting signatures demanding a change of leadership — that is replacing Tarun Gogoi as chief minister. They were claimed to be supporters of Health and Education Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The Congress has the strength of 78 members in a House of 126. Reports suggested that Sarma had 30 Congress legislators with him and that he was being supported by the 10-member Bodo People’s Front (BPF). He was also believed to be in touch with Badaruddin Ajmal of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which has another 18 members. Together, it added up to a formidable total of 58.
It is one of the worst kept secrets of the Congress in Assam that Sarma has been having a running battle with Chief Minister Gogoi for about a year now. The highly ambitious young minister has given all the indications that he is impatient to occupy the high chair. His political past is interesting. He started as an activist of the outlawed United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), was arrested and was facing trial in a number of cases. It was at this point of time that the then Chief Minister, Hiteswar Saikia, struck a deal with him, got the police cases withdrawn and induced him to join the Congress party.
Shortly afterwards, Saikia died. But Sarma has not looked back since then. He has now set up his hotlines with 24 Akbar Road and started throwing his weight about in the State Congress. A large number of Congressmen, particularly those in the Assam INTUC, were not happy as it was known that the ULFA was responsible for the murder of Manabendra Sarma, president of the State INTUC and son of the highly respected Congress leader and freedom fighter, late Siddhinath Sarma.
When the news of the signature campaign appeared, along with reports of Sarma’s attempts to win over the BPF and the AIUDF, alarm bells started ringing in Rajiv Bhavan, the headquarters of the Assam Congress at Guwahati. The ten-member BPF has a grudge against the Chief Minister. In the previous Assembly, the BPF had two ministers. But in the present House the Congress alone has as many as 78 members. Their demands had to be met. So Gogoi appointed only one minister from the BPF.
Similarly, Ajmal’s AIUDF had also been estranged from Gogoi after the Assam Government failed to prevent last year’s communal violence in the Bodo Territorial Council area in which the Bengali Muslims were targeted. Their houses were burnt and property looted. Thousands were forced to flee and take shelter in refugee camps that were set up. Added to this were two other factors. The APCC chief, Bhubaneswar Kalita, has not been seeing eye to eye with the Chief Minister for quite some time. And Paban Singh Ghatowar, leader of the tea-labourers community and Union Minister of State for the Development of the North-Eastern Region (DONER) was said to be interested in becoming the Chief Minister. Ghatowar is a highly popular leader of the tea labourers who are the determining factor in about thirty Assembly constituencies, mainly in Upper Assam. He is a five-time MP from the Dibrugarh Lok Sabha constituency. Taken all these factors together, there was reason for Gogoi to get worried.
Soon enough, however, the party high command in New Delhi set at rest any speculation about removal of Gogoi, making it abundantly clear that there was no plan for a change of leadership, at least until after the Lok Sabha elections next year. Gogoi’s added advantage was that though some in the party are not happy with his style of functioning, Himanta Biswa Sarma is intensely disliked by all of them. Sarma’s public rating is also not very high. Those who have been watching the animated debates in the Assamese TV channels ever since the threat to Gogoi developed know that while some were critical of the Chief Minister, none supported Sarma. His becoming the chief minister, they were unanimous, would be a disaster for Assam.
Meanwhile, to Gogoi’s relief, PCC chief Bhubaneswar Kalita made it clear that in the battle with Sarma, he was firmly with the Chief Minister. And Badruddin Ajmal who keeps touch with Ahmed Patel, assured the Congress chief that he was not supporting Sarma. Sure of the firm ground under his feet, Gogoi exuded confidence as he told newsmen that he was not going to resign. ‘If some one came to remove me, I shall remain all the more firmly seated in my chair’, he quipped.
Till 2014 at least, Gogoi will be in saddle. There is no question of his being replaced. What happens after that will depend to a large extent on the outcome of the polls. For the present, the ‘Oust Gogoi’ campaign has blown over. It proved to be nothing more than the proverbial storm in the tea cup. (IPA Service)