By Kalyani Shankar
The Congress’ star campaigner RaGa (Rajiv Gandhi) and the BJP’s new poster boy NaMo (Narendra Modi) have shifted their focus to Karnataka quietly to test their vote catching ability. The feverish comparison between the two potential prime ministerial candidates has come down in the media as both have chosen a low profile campaign. While there was expectation that Karnataka would be a battleground for the two leaders to test their charisma, neither of them has shown interest in clashing with each other before the 2014 polls. The ground reality shows that neither Rahul not Modi want to be a win or lose factor. They don’t want to stick their neck out for reasons best known to themselves.
Why is Modi, in his new role as a national leader and the savior of the BJP (and also the country), shying away from campaign in Karnataka where the BJP needs all its ammunitions to fight a losing battle? Could it be because he has nothing to gain and everything to lose? The shrewd Modi knows when to project himself and when to lie low. Karnataka is not the place for him to be seen. He would not be in the forefront and face a criticism that the Modi magic did not work when the party loses in the state.
To the embarrassment of Shettar, his counterpart in the state and other local BJP leaders, initially Modi had decided not even to campaign until he was prevailed upon to address at least a couple of rallies. This is in line with his track record. Did he not avoid campaigning for the party in 2012 UP polls for precisely this reason?
The bottom line is that Modi doesn’t want to mess up his chances for the top job by taking any wrong steps.
From Modi’s point of view, he has no other option than to opt for a low profile campaign. Modi is a showman and he should have something to show in Karnataka. What could he do in a state, which is beyond hope? What could he brag about? Could he talk of Gujarat model of development when the poll issue this time appears to be lack of development? Could he talk of the corruption in the Congress when the BJP has been hit hard by its own brand of corruption in the state, leading to the exit of a former chief minister Yedyurappa? Could he talk of Hindutva when the local BJP leaders know it did not work in the recent municipal polls even in the BJP strongholds like the coastal areas?
The man on the street in Karnataka is vexed with the BJP government and is itching to vote it out. Bengaluru has become the garbage capital from a garden city. The BJP has lost its base in many areas including the cities. The party split has also done extensive damage while Yediyurappa has found his own party. The influential mutt heads are disenchanted with the saffron party. There is no local level leader of the stature of Yediyurappa and there are several factions fighting for influence.
Rahul Gandhi is in a better position. Karnataka used to be the citadel of the Congress. When Indira Gandhi lost every other state, Karnataka stood by her in 1977. The Congress has seen its ups and downs these past two decades, and it seems to be poised to snatch power even if it is on negative votes.
Sensing victory, the Karnataka Congress leaders expected Rahul to spend more time in the state and they had even planned road shows and rallies as he did in UP and Bihar but the computer wizards of Rahul’s image building group in Delhi shot it down and confined his campaign to just three days. This could be because despite vigorous campaign by Rahul Gandhi in UP and Bihar, the party did not do well. Even in Gujarat it had no impact.
The Congress is wary of a showdown between Modi and Rahul and just does not want any comparison, at least for the time being. The second thing is the next round of elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi where the Congress may not do well. Rahul would be expected to campaign in these states also and take the rubbing if the Congress loses miserably. So the best option is to localize the elections as an example for the future. Rahul would be the trump card only for the Lok Sabha polls.
The strategy was to allow the state leaders confine the campaign to local issues and five years of BJP misrule. They would rather avoid the national issues like the scams, price rise and inflation and want these to be kept in the background. Being the number two man in the party, Rahul can no longer avoid these is if they become poll issues. The party decided to use the three top leaders Sonia Gandhi Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi for just three days each.
The reluctance of RaGa and NaMo to show off in Karnataka is understandable. The road to reach their goal of Lok Sabha polls is long. Although Modi started his projection too early, he has realised his mistake that he could not sustain the pace for so many months. As for Rahul, for the present, things are looking up for Congress in the state and if the party wins Karnataka it would enthuse the cadres and create a favorable atmosphere for the 2014 polls. Modi is probably waiting for the next round of Assembly polls in Delhi, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where the BJP governments have done well where he would willingly campaign and also appropriate credit. [IPA]