By Dr Satish Misra
An announcement on Sunday in Goa at the Bharatiya Janata Party’s two day long national executive meeting appears to be acting like a catalyst to the formation of new alliances in the country. It has revived the talk of the formation of a non-Congress, non-BJP front which has been named by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee a ‘Federal Front’.
Now that the contours of the country’s polity are becoming clearer with the BJP’s decision to project Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial face, it is worth exploring whether a federal front is feasible or whose time has come or not? And if it can with or without the support of a national party come to power after the general elections in 2014 or earlier.
Formal declaration by the principal opposition party to project Modi at the national level has created lot of discomfort among not only the present allies of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but also among many other regional parties. This seems to be working as glue for bringing regional parties on one platform. But is fear enough for a sustainable and workable alliance is a moot question that is being asked by political observers and commentators.
Nitish Kumar along with his other party colleagues alone was vocal in expressing reservations about Modi and had indeed issued a warning to the BJP that if it decided to make the Gujarat Chief Minister as its prime ministerial candidate then the JD (U) would be forced rethink on the NDA. The JD (U) was hopeful that the BJP would pay heed to its warning but the saffron party was unable to resist pressure from its cadres and host of other leaders who saw in Modi their only hope to political power. The BJP leadership appears to be convinced that Modi, riding on the expectation and aspirations of the youth of the country, can help the party to substantially increase its Lok Sabha tally. The BJP’s mentor-RSS- shares this view.
Drama that followed BJP’s veteran leader L K Advani’s resignation from all key posts of the party and his subsequent withdrawal of resignation after the intervention of Rashtriya Swyamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat particularly confirmed fears of parties like the JD(U) whose political existence is heavily dependent upon support of minorities particularly Muslims.
The JD (U) and Shiv Sena had hoped that the BJP’s patriarch’s line of political thinking would ultimately prevail but Advani’s meek surrender disappointed not only NDA allies but many other leaders of the regional parties who had in past been either allies or friends of the BJP. While the JD (U) began to prepare itself to leave NDA, the West Bengal Chief Minister floated the idea of a federal front. She spoke to Chief Ministers of Bihar and Odisha Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik and former Jharkhand chief minister Babulal Marandi. At the moment the TMC, JD (U), BJD and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha have 19, 20, 14 and 2 MPs in the Lok Sabha which works out to a combined strength of 55.
The possibility of roping in of the SP which has 22 MPs is bright as its leader Mulayam Singh Yadav may not be averse to join the front as dates of general elections come near. The DMK with its 18 MPs is yet another party which can join the front. The two parties can bring the combined strength of the proposed front to 95. With NCP’s 9 MPs the strength can go to 104.
Even if we presumed that the TDP, SAD, RLD, National Conference, JD (S), were ready to join then tally can go to 125. With the inclusion of one member parties, the strength can be taken to a figure of about 150 but still this number despite lacking coherence still needs over 120 MPs to form a government at the Centre.
Theoretically, the Left was also a possible ally but with TMC taking the lead to form a front, the possibility of its joining the club is almost zero. There exist too many fundamental contradictions both ideological as well as personal among the non-Congress and non-BJP parties. The BSP and SP cannot come together. Similarly, the AIADMK and DMK do not see eye to eye to each other.
Notwithstanding such contradictions, Mamata Banerjee may be able to form a front which may keep doors open for others to join it at a later date but sustaining it may not be easy as egos and ambitions of regional leaders are going to prove major hurdles in keeping the alliance going.
While it is true that in the name of getting more powers for the states, the TMC, BJD and JD (U) may form a common ground to forge a non-Congress and non-BJP front but questions such as who would lead the front and what would be the formula for allocation of funds or for giving more powers to the States, a definite view and cohesive thinking on this complex issue is completely absent. There is enough rhetoric on this issue in public domain but a concrete action plan is missing.
Finally, if this front defying logic is able to muster enough numbers to come to power at the Centre say with the outside support of either the Congress or the BJP then how long will it last as personality clashes are bound to surface which may result in mid-term polls. This would be a sad reminder to the electorate of the failures of the Janata Dal and United Front. [IFS]