Hypocrisy on full show as parties mull alliances

By B K Chum

In politics there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies – there are only permanent interests. The saying’s validity has again been proved by the on-going efforts of the Congress and the BJP to retain their present allies and seek new ones. The developments of the past few weeks show that the tainted Congress-led UPA is scoring over the BJP-led NDA. The party has announced an electoral pact with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. It is now trying to find friends among other parties including Nitish Kumar’s JD(U).

On the other hand, the BJP-led NDA is losing its allies. Having lost JD(U), it has been left only with two, which includes Akali Dal. Whoever wins the race for attracting new allies will also influence the electoral fate of the two national groupings in 2014.

The theme of this piece is on perceiving the fate of the race between the Congress and the BJP to retain their allies and win new ones in the northwestern states of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, which together have 32 Lok Sabha seats. The reference to the national level goings-on is to serve as a backdrop to the region’s scenario.

In Punjab, which has 13 Lok Sabha seats, there is no ambiguity as to who will be with whom in 2014. Both the Akali Dal and the BJP leaders have a “life-long alliance”. Given Punjab’s demographic realities, the Akali Dal realises that it is almost impossible for it to capture power in Punjab and occupy ministerial chairs at the Centre without BJP support. The saffron party, which has its main base among the state’s urban Hindus, also needs Akali Dal’s support for sharing power in Punjab and more importantly for its bid to gain power at the Centre. The party’s central leadership has even been ignoring the humiliation its Punjab ministers have had often to suffer at the hands of its dominant ruling partner in matters of governance.

There is virtually no other party in Punjab, which can join hands with the Akali-BJP combine. The BSP, which has lost much of its ground support, may be more inclined, if at all, for an understanding with the Congress.

The Congress, which has been losing elections in Punjab since 2012, may go in for an electoral understanding with the Peoples Party of Punjab-led Sanjha Morcha, comprising Left parties and Surjit Singh Barnala-led Longowal Akali Dal. Though their electoral performance in the elections has been miserable, yet their marginalised support base can influence outcome of elections in closely-contested constituencies.

Take Haryana, which has nine Lok Sabha seats. There is scope for an electoral understanding between the ruling Congress and the marginalised BSP. But a decision on the issue will depend on whether the Congress leadership and Mayawati agree to shake hands.

The BJP finds itself in a catch-22 dilemma. The party, which has, over the years, lost much of its ground in the aya Ram gaya Ram state has an alliance with Bhajan Lal’s son Kuldeep Bishnoi-led Haryana Janhit Congress. A controversy has erupted within the party whether it should stick to its alliance with HJC or shake hands with Om Parkash Chautala-led main opposition party Indian National Lok Dal. While one section of the BJP’s central leadership as also the state party’s dominant group wants the alliance with the HJC to continue, another influential section of the central leadership favours an alliance with INLD.

Confusion over the alliance has been confounded by the last week’s developments. Chautala’s younger son Abhey Chautala, who has been holding the fort in the absence of his father and elder brother Ajay Chautala who are undergoing ten-year imprisonment in the infamous JBT teachers recruitment case, last week launched a bitter attack on the BJP. Addressing a public meeting he said “INLD would not have any truck with the saffron party………No political party is ready to enter into an alliance with the BJP because of the ongoing infighting in the party”.

Speaking from his hospital bed the ailing Chautala also said “INLD can stand strong without any alliance” But after some senior BJP leaders including Rajnath Singh and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi met him in hospital he said that his party would join hands with any political party which is against the Congress.

However, the possibility of Chautala’s family friend Parkash Singh Badal who has an alliance with the BJP persuading him to have a tie-up with the BJP cannot be ruled out. But one will have to keep one’s fingers crossed because if there is also an adverse verdict against Chautala and his two sons in the disproportionate assets case now pending before the court, it may become impossible for the BJP to go in for an alliance with the tainted INLD.

Politicians are known to be double-faced. The INLD’s current utterances are the latest example.

There is no ambiguity about political alignments in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, which have six and four Lok Sabha seats respectively. The Congress-National Conference alliance has been in power in J&K, with the Mufti Muhammad Mufti Sayyed-floated Peoples Democratic Party playing main opposition party’s role. Occasionally, differences erupt in the Congress on the issue of choosing its alliance partner. But its alliance with NC may remain undisturbed.

BJP, which is essentially a Jammu region-based party split a couple of years ago following a number of its MLAs voting for the ruling combine in the Legislative Council polls. Presently the party does not have any potential ally to join hands with.

In Himachal Pradesh, the saffron party also split over a couple of years ago with an influential section led by Maheshwar Singh quitting the party in protest against the former chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal’s functioning style. The rebels formed Himachal Lokhit Party The victorious Congress last week humbled the BJP in Mandi Lok Sabha poll with a massive margin.

Image of ruling parties is a criterion the regional parties use to decide about their alliance with national parties. Until a few months ago it looks that the political and governance paralysis of the scams-tainted UPA would make it difficult for it to retain many of its allies and find new ones. But the speed with which it has been announcing policies and taking governance initiatives in the past few weeks has helped it virtually erase its image of an untouchable entity.

This development coupled with the permanent interests of the regional political parties may help the Congress in the 2014 elections in the four northwestern region states. [IPA]