Triangular fight between AGP, BJP and Congress
Guwahati: It will be a tussle between experience and exuberance for the prestigious Guwahati parliamentary seat.
AGP veteran leader and Rajya Sabha MP Dhiren Bhaisya, BJP vice president and former union minister Bijoya Chakraborty and youth congress leader Manash Bora are locked in a triangular fight which is sure to throw an interesting result.
The contest in the seat is being billed as one between a grandmother and her grandson by none other than the Congress candidate.
The 75-year-old Bijoya is a seasoned politician. She had worked with the Janata Party and regional Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) before wearing the saffron colour.
While in the AGP, she had served in the Rajya Sabha from 1986 to 1992. Subsequently, she joined the BJP and was made a Union minister of state in 1999 when BJP-led National Democratic Alliance came to power.
In the 2004 polls, the BJP fielded legendary singer-composer Bhupen Hazarika in her place despite protests by party workers. But the move boomeranged on the party
as Hazarika had to bite the dust. Realizing that folly, the party re-nominated Bijoya in the 2009 polls which she won.
This election, Bijoya’s principal rival old Manas, a youth Congress leader, is being seen as a greenhorn though politics is in his blood. Son of Assam’s social welfare minister Akon Bora, 32-year-old Manas had won the ‘primary’ to be nominated from Guwahati.
“It will be a contest between a grandmother and a grandson,” Manas said. Bijoya took the jibe easy saying there was nothing wrong in Manas calling her his grandmother.
Manas claimed that the voters would reject Bijoya as they lost faith in her for doing nothing for the constituency. Bijoya countered by saying she would not only win but also better her results.
BJP leaders here try to buttress her claim by pointing out the nationwide wave in favour of their party. But the fact remains that the voters in Guwahati seldom get swayed by any wave. This was evident in 2004 when Hazarika had lost despite BJP’s ‘India shining’.
Though the BJP won the Guwahati seat in 2009, the 2014 elections it seems to be a tough road ahead for the party.
The Guwahati constituency in total has above 18.39 lakh votes. Though the Congress candidate Manas Bora, son of jail minister Akon Bora was elected through primary elections, yet his chances of winning the seat also looks bleak. It is mainly because he has a number of cases under several sections lodged against him, and due to this even a number of senior Congress leaders are not in his favour.
In the 2009 polls, Bijoya was the joint candidate of BJP and AGP following a pre- poll understanding but despite that she could win by a margin of only 11,855 votes. She had defeated Captain Robin Bordoloi of the Congress.
Keeping that in mind, chief minister Tarun Gogoi had pitched for Bordoloi but the Congress high command went ahead with Manas.
Since BJP and AGP have now fallen apart, Bijoya’s biggest threat is the fragmentation of anti-Congress votes.
Apart from Manas, she will face a stiff challenge from AGP bigwig Birendra Prasad Baishya.
Pranjal Bordoloi of the Aam Aadmi Party and Gopi Das of the All India United Democratic Front are the other candidates in the fray.
The Guwahati Lok Sabha constituency consists of 10 assembly constituencies and going by the total number of votes that the BJP received in comparison to Congress, the scenario looks all different.
If a poll alliance with the AGP helped the BJP, how very small it may be, the non–alliance in the 2014 poll is certain to pull a small percentage of the BJP votes for the AGP.
If one reflects upon the data of 2009 LS polls, one would see that the BJP and AGP had a poll alliance and the entire contest was primarily between the BJP and the Congress.
But this time the emergent of the AAP and fielding of a strong AGP candidate against the BJP candidate is certainly to have some impact or the other in the final outcome of the elections.