By Anirudh Prakash
It is not at all unusual for leading politicians, especially those aspiring to be prime minister, to contest from two Lok Sabha seats in any general election. Indira Gandhi has done it, Atal Behari Vajyapee also used the same ploy and for that matter, even Sonia Gandhi did it, and even when she was not expected to be the prime minister.
So, the logic in the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, opting for Varanasi is not that he is looking for a safe seat. There is a much bigger over- arching strategy that powers this approach. In this configuration, looking for a safe seat is the least significant of the objectives.
Come to think of it, the BJP’s former president, Murli Manohar Joshi, won the 2009 election by a very slender looking margin of about 20,000 votes in a multi- cornered contest.
Now if someone calls this an electorally safe seat, then there is something seriously wrong with this definition. The two pillars of Modi’s electoral strategy, even in Gujarat, have been development and Hindutva. Better still, Moditva, so that Brand Modi gets prominence and overrides everything else. An appeal to all other factors, excluding development, is the common element among all the leaders who have demonstrated their electoral clout, more predominantly in the north Indian belt. Then whether it is Mulayam or Mayawati or Nitish, they have retained their numbers basically because the people, instead of casting their vote, have always voted for their winning caste combination.
In Modi’s context, there is a compulsion that he cannot be overtly seen to be raising the pro- Hindutva slogans, as these would have a counter- balancing impact in the national context.
But then if he has to win Uttar Pradesh for himself, then his Gujarat model of development will not yield any electoral dividends. The only grammar that the people of Uttar Pradesh understand in the context of the BJP is Hindutva. It is only on this score that the BJP can gain an upper hand in the 80 Lok Sabha seats of Uttar Pradesh.
If prime ministerial aspirants have contested from two seats, then the trend of retaining their home constituency and giving up the other is also well- known. Now Modi may have chosen Varanasi first, but his home constituency will always remain Vadodara. So, one should not be surprised if he gives up Varanasi after the elections.
But then, the much needed communal polarisation that is the need of the hour for Modi and the BJP can be achieved merely by the fact that the rest of the opposition would look for an “alignment” of the secular vote. In real terms, the secular vote may not polarise in favour of one candidate in Varanasi, but you can surely expect that the Hindu sentiment will rally around Modi. Already, the slogan, Har Har Modi, Ghar Ghar Modi, has been making the rounds on the streets of Varanasi, and the cyber world.
Irrespective of the candidate to be chosen by the Congress, it appears unlikely that Modi will be hamstrung by the quality of opposition.
As it is, Varanasi goes to the polls in the last phase of the elections, and that is the time when he would not be required to campaign in other areas. But surely, a formidable heavyweight from the Congress, aided (or abetted) by the Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejrwal would convert this into a cracker of an election. Rarely has a prime ministerial candidate been challenged through such a high voltage campaign.
But then, Modi, even with all the apparent drawbacks that have the ability to take off the sheen from his persona, with his propaganda, has managed to create an aura of winnability around him. The manner in which the BJP- RSS leadership has actually surrendered to him, shows his clout, but then in a way, also makes him vulnerable. In the months since his anointment, it has been adequately proved that without the backing of the Sangh, he could not have had his way in the BJP. There are several anecdotal tales about the way in which he has smashed the entire BJP leadership in Gujarat, and emerged as the sole super power in the party. There are fears within the BJP of the same phenomenon being repeated at least within the party, if the same level of success is repeated in the May 2014 elections. The subscribers to this school of thought attribute this element of Modi’s personality trait as one of the reasons he could pick up Varanasi, when he could have safely entered Parliament from Vadodara.
But then Modi is simply not content with achieving that objective. His agenda is to establish himself as a lone super power in the BJP, in a public sort of way. For this purpose, the humiliation of all the BJP leaders is a necessary pre- condition. So, displacing Joshi from Varanasi, and winning it with a handsome margin is the next step. The minor skirmishes that take place along the way can be settled by riding roughshod over other leaders and these are simply building blocks towards that goal. However, one thing is certain. If political stability is one of the expectations from the next regime, then it can be safely assumed that under any Modi dispensation at the centre, this is going to be a forgotten commodity.
Considering that even minor partners make the prime ministers dance to their tune in coalition governments, we can expect that the Modi’s party men may fall in line, but his partners will make him twist and turn and demand from him the flexibility of a trapeze artiste.
So, Modi’s gambit may work in Varanasi, he may polarise voters on communal lines, but the rest of the necessary and sufficient conditions to run an inevitable coalition are likely to pose problems. The tug- of- war that goes on in every process, say, like candidate selection, has made it clear that several knots have to be tied, as well untied in this act of political survival. INAV