By Kalyani Shankar
Maharashtra is now headed for the assembly elections on October 15 this year which will be marked by unprecedented bitterness and mudslinging between the contesting political parties as all the major political parties have broken their respective alliances to fight on their own.BJP has severed its pact with Shiv Sena while the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has announced that its alliance with the Congress Party is over. The last day of nomination is September 27 and there is a big rush among all the four major parties to field candidates in the assembly constituencies.
The Saffron alliance was one of the oldest lasting for more than a quarter of century. The BJP first allied with the Sena during the 1989 Lok Sabha polls. It was the BJP leader late Pramod Mahajan, who was the architect of the alliance as he wanted to expand the social base of the BJP. He realized the potential of the alliance, which has lasted so long. The two parties came together on the Hindutva agenda. The Sena supported Mr. Advani’s rath yatra and in 1992, sent its cadre for the Babri Masjid demolition. Bal Thackeray defended the then Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi during the Gujarat riots even when he faced dissent within the BJP. Sena remained the loyal ally of the BJP led National Democratic Alliance. The two parties also shared power in Maharashtra, running the government between 1995 and 2000. The alliance saw many ups and downs in their relationship fighting many Assembly and Lok Sabha elections since 1989. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the alliance roped in three regional parties to form the so-called Mahayuti (grand alliance), which went on to sweep 42 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It is this victory, which made BJP confident to fight on its own..
As long as Balasaheb Thackeray, the founder of the Sena was alive, it had the upper hand in the state because of his larger than life personality. The alliance continued because of the mature leadership in the BJP including that of Vajpayee, Advani and Thackeray.But the ego clash between Shiv Sena chief and the BJP President precipitated the collapse of the seat sharing talks.
While the BJP had been making substantial gains since 2000, the Sena on the other hand was weakened by revolts within the party even during Balasaheb’s time. Chagan Bhujwal left the Sena in 1991 and joined Sharad Pawar splitting the party. In 2005 Narayan Rane quit the Sena and joined the Congress. All senior Sena men, who occupied crucial portfolios when Sena was in power over 15 years ago, are dead, defected or have been sidelined including Manohar Joshi, Sudhir Joshi, Dake, Madhukar Sarpotdar, Pramod Nawalkar, Suresh Prabhu and Wamanrao Mahalik who used to be the core team of Bal Thackeray. For the Sena, things have changed after Raj Thackeray split the party and formed the MNS.
The BJP got ambitious after the spectacular results in recent Lok Sabha polls and has been trying to get a bigger seat share from the 2009 formula when it held 119 and the Sena 169 seats of the 288-seat assembly. It has maintained that both should share 135 seats each and the rest of the 18 seats be distributed between smaller allies. Sena naturally wanted to retain its big brother status in the state despite the BJP having a bigger strike rate.
The BJP-Sena alliance reached a breaking point during the tense negotiations these past few days due to various reasons. First of all, there is no homogeneity between the party workers at the lower level. Both the BJP and Sena felt that by going it alone, the party could be rebuilt as each suspects the other.
The chief minister issue is the question that is dogging both the parties. While the Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray has thrown his hat in the ring already, the BJP does not have any tall leader after the untimely demise of Gopinath Munde. The BJP has not named its chief ministerial candidate although state unit chief Devendra Phadnavis is most likely to be chosen.
Sena feels that the BJP is taking the Sena for granted. The Sena thinks that the BJP had been shown its place in the recent by-elections and the Modi wave has gone. But the problem is Uddhav is not Balasaheb Thackeray. The Sena is not pan Maharashtra as it has influence only in some pockets. While Modi can attract incremental votes, Uddhav may not. As for the BJP, it has influence in Vidarbha and some pockets but it has better strike rates. By going it alone, the BJP may be gambling while the Sena was showing bravado.
The chemistry between Modi and Uddhav is not all that good as it was between Balasaheb Thackeray and Vajpayee-Advani duo. Uddhav did not like Modi’s overtures to his cousin Raj Thackeray. The Saamna, the Sena mouthpiece has often criticized Modi in the past few months. It is to be seen whether Shiv Sena leaves NDA Government following this break up and also at the state level, the NCP withdraws from the Congress led Government. It is a free for all for the major four parties in Maharashtra politics now. (IPA Service)