Some hope for tangible gains in 2015
By S. Sethuraman
To millions of Indians who voted for the Modi-led BJP in May 2014 and his crowning success in a nation-wide thirst for change, the “governance” turn-out over the last seven months looks more of an anti-climax. No wonder, large sections have begun to feel somewhat disillusioned with the style of “maximum governance” in vogue, less productive of jobs and uplifting of poor.
It would be unfair to expect of a new government, however strong and assertive its direction from a single source of authority, to bring about a quick transformation for aspirations to become closer to fulfilment within a short time. The Modi Government, apparently conscious of how it lags behind expectations, rests on its claim of having lifted the economy out of morass and opened up the growth trajectory of the future.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with his commendable exertions on the political (mainly electoral), external and security fronts, has indeed launched several flagship programmes which, if well-organised with people’s involvement, could bring social and economic gains over time. But, current preoccupations with “doing business” easier with an eye more on foreign investors and raising FDI caps for large segments of the economy has more to do with free market capitalism than getting domestic business to do more to “make in India” and create jobs.
The global fall in oil and other commodity prices has come timely to the rescue of the NDA Government, its dubious claim of having brought down inflation notwithstanding, and provides a favourable setting for a highly expectant Budget in February, with “exciting times” ahead, according to Finance Minister Mr Arun Jaitley. Business confidence and expectations are quite high.
2015/16 certainly looks more promising on the back of a limping recovery in 2014/15, just crossing the five per cent mark in GDP growth, but the projected 6 to 6.5 per cent in the coming year involves a series of tough decisions to make, not only via reforms, but also to mount efforts to remove infrastructural bottlenecks and fill yawning fiscal caps.
These are underlined in the Finance Ministry’s mid-year review which. citing the lack of private investment so far, calls for public spending in infrastructure which could crowd in private investment. The fiscal challenge, after the Finance Minister’s travails in the current year and drastic cuts in plan expenditures, has to be met squarely in the forthcoming budget.
The fall in oil prices has helped Government to curtail subsidy outgoes while lowering inflation, but even so, it would find it difficult to meet growth-related investment needs while pursuing fiscal prudence without recourse to additional revenue mobilisation, especially as the GST can only be introduced in April 2016, once the Centre and States have resolved the pending issues.
Politically, the country has been going through a cacophony of the Sangh Parivar with conversions and re-conversions spreading discord and triggering tensions over large parts of the country, which are mutely observed by the BJP leaders, if not abetting. The ruling party’s revivalist social agenda is getting to overshadow the “development” plank of the Modi Government.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has unfortunately failed to assuage effectively the concerns voiced in Parliament over the spate of forcible re-conversions. If he had intervened, it would have helped avoid needless confrontations with the opposition. In the result, key economic and other legislation having been blocked in the Rajya Sabha by the opposition in majority, the Modi Government hopes to resort to an “Ordinance Raj” to push reforms including insurance, coal auctions and land.
It is rather strange that the BJP-led NDA Government, with its overwhelming majority in Parliament, should have recourse to promulgating ordinances, whatever the constraints it should have resolved through more tactful and less ebullient parliamentary management. Parliamentary enactments would carry more weight at home and even more for investors abroad, than pieces of Ordinance.
That this Government has set its objectives, in the medium to long term, on parallel paths is becoming clearer now. At the political level, the ruling party at the Centre, BJP, is already winning in a series of state elections. The goal is to make India virtually a single-party state within five years by inflicting irreparable damage on the 130-year old Congress, which was not only unseated from power but also pathetically reduced to a mere 44 seats in the 2014 LoK Sabha elections.
Mr Amit Shah, Mr. Modi’s chosen game-changer, is already tasked to bring states in alignment with the Centre through “Congress-mukt” and weakening of all regional and state outfits into skeletons. The days for all these parties in coalition are over, asserts Mr Shah who says BJP Governments all over are necessary for sustaining the Modi Government and furthering its “development agenda” . Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand have been won over in 2014.
Secondly, the Hindutva agenda is firmly in place with the party’s spiritual guide, RSS, and its parivar – VHP, Bajrang Dal, and other groups, are now emboldened with the Modi Government at the Centre to step up their work on making India primarily a Hindu State with reduced space for such minorities as are willing to accept secondary status.
Thirdly, at the international level, Mr Modi has brought an electrifying change in the perception of India by the rest of the world with a greater recognition of its great power status which can do business on equal terms with all nations, big and small. Not only Mr Modi has made a mark on the world stage but also his Government is able to advance its interests and shape a new global order.
Mr Narendra Modi has become the most authoritative Prime Minister since independence – even excelling Mrs. Indira Gandhi – in the manner of not only concentrating all powers to himself but also making shrewd moves to reshape the India of the future in different ways, uninhibited by checks and balances in our constitution.
Certainly, there is a growing feeling of uneasiness over many things happening under the Modi Government, the foisting of Hindi as official language or Sanskrit for education in the country, the deliberate choice of birthdays of great leaders of the past for launching programmes in a manner of downgrading the importance of those legends of freedom movement.
All these have come to be viewed as an attempt to unwind the glory of the past in order to re-write India’s history anew more in tune with the ideology propagated by RSS, already gaining momentum under the directions set by Mr Mohan Bhagwat, president of the Sangh. The ‘ghar-wapsi’ and other re-conversion programmes have his blessings and encouragement.
It is against this murky background that there is now a greater sense of expectations that the all-powerful Modi Government would seek to draw lessons from the experience gained in the past months and plan for a budget and action programme which would be more in tune with the people’s aspirations. The Budget will have tough measures to help raise additional resources for not only maintaining fiscal prudence but also provide for some investments especially for infrastructure as the public-private participation has not taken off as expected. Public outlays are bound to crowd in private investment.
Hopefully, Government would also seek to ensure greater harmony in the matter of parliamentary management with all the reforms being unfolded and thus gain wider acceptance across the nation. It needs to avoid hasty actions like disbanding the Planning Commission without an institutional alternative which can both provide policy choices for Government and act as a watchdog for implementation of development plans. (IPA Service)