AAP AND BJP IN A TOUGH BATTLE
By Harihar Swarup
Now that the bugle has been sounded for the Delhi 2015 Assembly elections, three possible scenarios might emerge in the post-poll period. Most widely speculated is that the poll may again throw up a hung house. The second scenario is that the AAP may get majority. The third is the BJP may get majority on its own. Judging by the present trend, the possibility of either the BJP or the AAP getting absolute majority appears remote. Many questions arise in the event of a hung assembly; as former chief minister, Sheila Dikshit, has already indicated the Congress may support the AAP. It is yet premature to say if it would be outside support or the Congress may join Arvind Kejriwal-led government?
It has been a do or die battle for Arvind Kejriwal. Much has changed in these 13 months; there is a new government, armed with a formidable majority at the Centre, led by Narendra Modi; AAP is no longer a nervous debutante and the Congress wears a distinct deserted look.
The pattern of voting in the coming election is also likely to be changed. It appears there will virtually be straight contest between the AAP and the BJP, the Congress remaining in periphery. The advantage of Kejriwal is that the Congress voters have been inclining toward the AAP.
Devoid of a strong state-level leadership, BJP is banking on Modi’s appeal to win the day once again. PM has already shown that in states like Haryana and Maharashtra, his national image can offset faction-ridden local units and pull in youthful aspiration voters. In Delhi though, Kejriwal poses a different challenge; he is easily the most recognizable face in Delhi politics and has shown a capacity to punch above his weight — by his energetic campaigning and communication through innovative means on social media as well as well-publicized dharnas. Latest reports say that Kiran Bedi, who has formally joined the BJP, may be fielded against Kejriwal but she faces a tough battle against the AAP supremo.
Kejriwal has already paid a heavy price for resigning from the office just in 49 days, losing substantial middle-class support as a result. But in lower income groups and slum clusters, AAP’s anti-corruption plank and cheaper bijli-pani manifesto do resonate even now. Modi and BJP have tended to focus on the big national picture, promising faster development if the governments at the centre and the state belong to the same party.
Congress, once the dominant party in Delhi, is now reduced to a nostalgic relic of the Sheila Dikshit years—ironically it was the Dikshit period in which Delhi looked as if it could genuinely aspire to fulfill its potential as a modern capital city. Yet, though, Dikshit gave the capital flyovers, metro, safety for women remained sorely neglected. Delhi remains a city where VIPs coexist with the very poor; where rapid migration has led to sprawling jhuggi-jhopdis clusters. The union capital needs urban renewal that extends beyond privileged colonies. Whether that challenge can be met by Modi’s many promises or Kejriwal’s populism, is an open question. For the moment, the Delhi electorate needs a functional government with an enlightened leadership. Full statehood may be a long-term answer – the immediate task is to get a stable government.
What was without doubt a vote for the BJP and Modi last year in the Lok Sabha elections, is unlikely to be repeated this year in the assembly election, when the issues and candidates are very different. Kejriwal is not taking on Modi this time.PM is just another BJP leader. Unlike the Lok Sabha election, when APA could not have expected to be accepted as a serious contender, in the coming assembly polls, the fast growing party is attracting more volunteers and voters.
Kejriwal and his advisers, who messed up their chances in the Delhi government in 2013 by pursuing unsustainable populist measures and then opting out of governance, seem to have learnt from their mistakes. After raising doubts in the public mind over their ability to govern, AAP leaders now appear keen to demonstrate that they are more than a bunch of anarchist protesters and they intended to back systematic changes and push Delhi’s development in a particular manner. In 2013 they rode on the promise they held; in 2014 they paid for failing to deliver and this year, they have more of a programme to offer.
In the coming election, more than 1.3 crore Delhiites will exercise their franchise, including 1.72 lakh first time voters. From 55 per cent in the 2008 Delhi assembly elections to 65 per cent in 2013 elections, the Delhi voters are showing their sense of participation February 7 assembly elections will be sixth in Delhi after it was reconstituted in 1993. While the BJP formed the government in 1993, the Congress won the next three elections. The 2013 election threw up surprising results with AAP adding a third dimension to what has been a two-sided contest between the Congress and the BJP for two decades. (IPA Service)