By KANWAL SIBAL
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s neighbourhood policy will be tested in 2016. With Pakistan, the pendulum has swung from breaking off dialogue to seeking it. We have agreed to resume a “comprehensive dialogue”, with Foreign Secretary-level talks slated for mid-January. By halting at Lahore on his return from Kabul to greet Nawaz Sharif, Modi has dramatically put his personal imprimatur on our Pakistan policy.
His big leap of faith in dealing with Islamabad has made him vulnerable to Pakistan’s endemic bad faith in dealings with us. We might want to deny Pakistan the diplomatic advantage it has gained by claiming that India is refusing dialogue, for which Sharif is ready.
We may be thinking that with a decisive leader like Modi in power, Pakistan may see an opportunity to turn the page with India, if it so desires. But Pakistan’s complex internal equations makes it difficult to asses Sharif’s game plan. Pakistan seeks dialogue because it makes it look responsible, deflects attention from its terrorism credentials, compels India to overlook its provocations in order to preserve a positive atmosphere, and wears down India’s political will.
If there is another major terrorist attack linked to Pakistan, Modi will have to justify his remarkable personal outreach to Pakistan. Until the SAARC summit in November 2016, Pakistan may, as a tactical step, rein in the terrorist groups in order to protect Modi’s visit to Islamabad. If Pakistan moves on trade issues in 2016, that would be a step forward. Modi’s two successful visits and our unstinted assistance to earthquake-hit Nepal had changed the atmosphere of India-Nepal relations. But violent Madhesi opposition to the new Nepali constitution leading to blockage of fuel supplies from India has destroyed the goodwill created. The Nepalese PM’s accusations against India and his ostentatious play of the China card against us present a challenge which we need to counter in 2016.
At the SAARC summit, we can expect a concerted move, especially by Pakistan and Nepal, in favour of China’s membership, which we must strongly oppose as it will be politically disastrous for us. With Sri Lanka we should capitalise on the favourable situation for us with the change of government there. The political drift in the Maldives will need our attention at the high political level.
The gains in our relations with Bangladesh, with the elimination of safe havens there for anti-Indian insurgents, transit arrangements, power supplies and so on, should be consolidated in 2016. Our policy towards Dhaka should be seen by all political forces there as a national policy that transcends political parties, even while we recognise the great value of Sheikh Hasina as a partner.
Bangladesh can contribute to a more robust Act East policy, with Myanmar and Thailand as part of the chain to advance our interests. India has no impediments to its political, economic and cultural expansion eastwards, and this should be pushed in 2016. China is a partner, in some respects, as well as an adversary. It is strengthening its geopolitical presence in our area with its One Belt One Road initiative (which includes the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through POK), its Indian Ocean ambitions and its move to promote the reconciliation process in Afghanistan with US support.
Our policy of cooperating with China within BRICS, and finding common ground on global issues such as climate change and WTO should continue. Only measured access to the Indian market should be given to China unless there is reciprocity. China’s willingness to disrupt its productive relations with Japan and ASEAN on territorial issues carries a lesson for us.
Building our strategic ties with the US and Japan as a hedging strategy against China’s assertiveness should continue, without becoming a pawn in the US’ hands, whose own vast economic and financial relationship with China cannot be ignored. Access to US defence technology will be a challenge as we expand our arms acquisitions from that country. We should have a strategy of extracting the most from Barack Obama’s last year in office, helped by the good personal rapport between him and Modi.
For Modi’s many developmental campaigns, the US is a key partner for technology and investment. American investors want to see quicker implementation of promises for reforms and ease of doing business in India.
On strategic issues, our relations with the US are in better shape than on economic issues, where America treats India as an antagonist in international negotiations.
The US should be pushed in 2016 on its promise not only to facilitate India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime, but also the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation .
With Russia, after Modi’s successful visit to Moscow in December 2015, the focus should be on expanding trade and energy ties, reaching agreement on Kudankulam 5 and 6 and announcing a second site for Russian reactors. With President François Hollande coming as chief guest at our 2016 Republic Day, we should look for steps to consolidate our defence ties with France as the principal European option in our Make in India in defence manufacturing.
Modi’s highly successful visit to the UAE in 2015 should be followed by more attention to the Arab world in 2016. Religious extremism and terrorism of the ISIL variety, the emergence of its cells in our region, the use of social media for recruitment, require more intensive cooperation between security agencies at the global level.
Modi’s visit to Israel in 2016 would be a historic step. With the nuclear agreement between the P-5 and Iran proceeding smoothly, we need to reinforce ties with Iran, which is a vital strategic partner for energy cooperation and access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
After the hugely successful India-Africa Forum summit in 2015, a systematic follow up would be required in 2016 to derive the maximum from the goodwill and opportunities created. The challenges and opportunities for India in 2016 are no different than in 2015.
The point is how much the dynamism and imagination Modi has shown in external affairs can shape the two to India’s advantage.
(The writer is a former Foreign Secretary)