SHOW US THE PROMISED ACHCHE DIN
By B K Chum
Malevolent stars have sharpened their gaze at the Modi government and the BJP. Achche Din prime minister had promised on assuming office 20 months ago have already turned into Bure Din for the country’s economy. The ruling BJP has also not remained unaffected by the Bure Din as its political and electoral fortunes have been on the downslide.
The dismal scenario raises question: What the remaining 40 months of the Modi government’s tenure holds for it and for the saffron party. Answering the question by quoting what Winston Churchill had said “Avoid prophesying before hand, because it is much better policy to prophecy after the event has already taken place” would not suffice. An attempt needs to be made to find an answer in the given situation.
The 20 months of the Modi-led NDA government have been disappointing for the common man who has been a victim of the sharp rise in essential commodities prices, spiraling unemployment and governance deficit.
Modi had been much applauded for the progress Gujarat had made on economic and industrial fronts during his three tenures as chief minister. Added to his achievements in the home state were his oratory skills during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections which had roused hopes that on becoming prime minister he would repeat his Gujarat performance at the national level and would introduce economic reforms which would help the country record a high growth rate. But what has happened during his 20 month’s rule on the reforms and growth fronts is quite the reverse of what was expected.
Economic reforms continue to be a mirage with even Modi saying “reforms are not a sprint but a marathon”. Addressing the World Economic Forum at Davos on January 21,Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said “some reform measures have got delayed”.
The government’s much trumpeted landmark indirect Tax Reform Goods and Services Tax (GST) continues to wait for a nod from Rajya Sabha. The BJP has blamed the Congress for stalling the important legislation forgetting that it had itself not allowed the key legislation to be passed by Lok Sabha during the tenure of the UPA government, its original author. It is tit for tat in Parliament while the nation suffers.
Stock market, the barometer of the economy which had shot up to 30,000 BSE Sensex after Modi assumed power, ended at its 20-month low last week.
That the health of the ailing economy has been deteriorating is also indicated by the tumbling exports which recorded a further 15 percent decline in December. Factory output has also been falling. Though some high-end industrial bodies representing large and medium industries have also expressed their apprehension about the prevailing state of the economy but it is the small and medium industries which have been the worst sufferers of the government’s failure to remedy the situation. A number of units in some states including Punjab have either shut down or moved out of their home states.
Some of the prime minister’s much trumpeted development and social welfare schemes are either repackaging of the UPA government’s on-going schemes or are a repetition of the announcements his own government had made earlier. For instance, Modi’s latest announcement of Rs. 10,000 crore Start-up India fund is the amount what Arun Jaitley in his first Budget presented to the Parliament on July 10, 2014 had announced “to act as a catalyst to attract private capital by way of providing equity, soft loan and other risk-capital for Start-up companies”.
The situation reminds one the Punjabi saying “Agga Daur Pichha Chaur”.
During his frequent foreign visits which his critics describe “mainly as self-promoting” the prime minister had been projecting India as a lucrative investment destination. But during the 20 months of his government foreign investment has been uninspiring.
Take the political situation.
For the first time in the Jan Sangh/BJP post-Independence history, the Hindu rightist party secured an absolute majority in 2013 Lok Sabha elections and formed the government in association with its NDA allies. It was the Modi magic which played a pivotal role in helping the saffron party to ride to power. But it took hardly six months for the bubble of the Modi magic to burst. The period sowed the seeds of disillusionment among the common man.
The situation provided a fertile ground for many of the otherwise demoralised anti-BJP parties to rally. Forgetting their long-time enmities some of them started joining hands. It did not take long for the realignments among the non-BJP parties to inflict electoral damages on the saffron party. The Modi government as also the ruling BJP in some of the states were hit by the anti-incumbency factor. Some of its central ministers and those in the states find themselves in the dock facing serious allegations. Dissenting voices are also heard even in the higher echelons of the party. Earlier calling itself as a “party with a difference” the BJP has become Congress-II with some variations. Its political stock has been falling.
2015 started with a humiliating defeat in Delhi assembly elections where the saffron party could secure only three of the 70 seats. The year ended with a rout in Bihar which was followed by the party’s humbling in some of the by-elections and local body elections in the BJP-ruled states. In the Maharashtra civic poll held earlier this month, the party secured fourth position getting 39 seats out of 345 with the Congress topping the list of the winners by securing 105 and its ally NCP getting 80 seats.
In the background of the above scenario one can safely predict that with the government and the party’s stock having already fallen both are going to face challenging times in the coming 40 months. (IPA Service)