A lot has happened during the last few weeks and all the political developments are linked to the bigger picture which will culminate after the election process to the assembly is completed. The MUA government in its effort to woo voters to its fold has inaugurated not only Mawlai Block but off the cuff, it has also generously given the people of Mawthadraishan a Block of their own. Obviously creating Mawthadraishan Block was a bolt from the blue and the same was done
without out any proper study or plan.
Dr Mukul Sangma is on an ‘inauguration and opening spree’ and today it is the inauguration of Community and Rural Development Block, tomorrow it will be bridges, roads and what have you. Obviously, the goal is to make people aware of what the MUA government had achieved
in the last five years and the people are not complaining. But the question is why did the Government wait until the eleventh hour to make all this inauguration and announcements? The Government is even launching a new sports policy for the state.
But isn’t this too little too late? The Government may have achieved much, but the point one should take into consideration is that the Congress is a house in disarray. The question is whether the Party will face the people in the ensuing general election to the state assembly, en-bloc and united as it is now?
Above all the question doing the round is whether the Dhar brothers will remain with the Congress? And reports have also surfaced that the NPP is waiting with open arms to welcome the Dhars to its fold, but it all depends on whether the Congress can allot the party ticket to the
family’s new entrant to the state politics and contender for the Congress ticket from Jowai. Can the Congress deny the ticket to the party’s doyen of several decades in favour of a greenhorn whose only qualification is because he is the brother in law of Sniawbhalang and Ngaitlang? Sniawbha has already indicated that this is possible. A precedent has already been created in the case of his older brother who had won from the Umroi constituency by denying ticket to an
incumbent MLA. It is also true that Dr R.C. Laloo is no longer the shrewd politician that he once was and more importantly his health and age is working against him. And considering the way MPCC treated the complaint made by the Jowai District Congress Committee against Sniawbhalang, it will not be surprising if Laloo is asked to make way
just to please the Dhars.
Earlier, Sniawbha assumed that since his main contender is Draison Kharshiing he is confident that Nartiang would be a cake walk for him, but now the game has changed as former bureaucrat Jopthiaw Lyngdoh, IAS has decided to enter the fray. Lyngdoh may not have the kind of money that the Dhars have but he has the experience, the education, the charisma, the respect that Sniawbha does not have and most of all, he has the love of the majority of the people in the area including those in Wahiajer village which used to be Sniawbhalang’s stronghold.
In the coming election, all eyes will be on Nartiang, as Jopthiaw will give Sniawbhalang literarily), a run for his money and it will be a test case which will decide if wealth and money will prevail over education and experience.
Then the other pertinent question is also about the independent MLAs who have supported the MUA government for five years now. Are they going to contest on the Congress tickets or are they going to join other parties or remain independent? The three independent candidates from Jaintia hills who have supported the Mukul- led Congress Government in the State have not made public their stand as to which way they will move but they have made it amply clear that they fear
the anti- incumbency factor and most likely they will desert the party.
The good news for the supporters of the regional parties is that major regional parties in the state which include the UDP, the HSPDP and the GNC have finally agreed on a seat sharing formula. The agreed arrangement is that the UDP will contest 17 seats, HSPDP 10 seats and 9 seats would be open to friendly matches in the Khasi Jaintia region of the state. In the Garo hills the UDP has agreed on seat sharing with the Garo National Council. Although some of the legislators complained about making their onstituencies open for friendly contests between the regional parties, the alliance will go a long way in consolidating the position of the regional parties in the state. It is clear as the morning sky that the election will produce a hung assembly and the only option post 2018 election is a coalition government. Therefore the other advantage of having a pre-poll alliance of the regional parties is that in the event of a hung assembly result, the Governor will have to invite the leader of the alliance to form the government even if other parties have won the single largest numbers of seats. Dr Sangma and many Congress leaders claim that after the election, the Congress will emerge as the single largest party and that could be true, but the alliance of the regional parties could also have an impact on the party’s chances to form the next government.
The other development that needs to be taken into account is the fact that during the election of the 14th President of the country, it turns out that the MLAs who voted for the UPA candidate are Congress MLAs and their associate members who support the party in forming the MUA government. Even if the parties did not make it public as to who they voted for in the presidential election, the UDP votes obviously went to the NDA candidate. This also gives the impression that NEDA is still intact and the UDP or the regional alliance and the NPP are likely to partner with the BJP in the event that a non- Congress
coalition is in the offing. From the way the MLAs voted, it also indicates which direction the coalition will move in case of a hung assembly in Meghalaya.
But the bad news for the NPP is losing the GHADC to the Congress and this will have its impact on the party’s performance in the ensuing assembly election in the state. The outcome of the imbroglio in the
GHADC is an advantage to the Congress both psychologically and in term of numbers too. The Congress with only seven members is now ruling the roost in the ADC. This will change the direction in which the result of the elections will go (particularly in the Garo hills region of the state) after the general elections. The resignation of a former minister and a NCP/NPP loyalist in Jaintia hills ECB Bamon will also
have an impact on the performance of the party in the Jaintia hills.
We still have six months to go before the next assembly elections but the movers and shakers in the state’s politics have already created a ruffle here and there. The picture will be clearer after the
House meets for the summer session of 2013-18 Assembly. As the saying goe, this is just the beginning. The fun is yet to begin. Till today all the political parties share and agree with the common refrain which says ‘so far so good.’