By Albert Thyrniang
The clock is ticking. The day is approaching. The road is nearing. We have less than two months to go for the Assembly election 2018. All political parties foresee themselves are rulers of the state after the last vote is counted which is expected to be by the end of February. What about us, the general public? Who do we think will come to power?
The Congress which has ruled the state for 15 years is facing a huge anti-incumbency. The situation is made worse by constant internal bickering and rebellion leading to heavy weights quitting the party to join and seek tickets from rival parties.
Rowell Lyngdoh of Mawkyrwat was the first sitting Congress Legislator to declare publicly that he would join the Nationalist People’s Party after the announcement of the Assembly elections even informing that a group of legislators would pledge their allegiance to the late PA Sangma’s party. In the meantime his 100 youth Congress members in Mawkyrwat, South West Khasi Hills have recently embraced a party symbolised by a book. The senior leader might have been upset over his removal as Deputy Chief Minister in August this year.
The next to follow suit was the Pynursla MLA, Prestone Tynsong whose supporters have, in thousands preceded him in joining NPP on October 8 last following the dissolution of the Pynursla Block Congress Committee. Blaming the Chief Minister for a conspiracy to oust him, the Pyrursla strongman unofficially became a NPP member in a function attended by Manipur Deputy Chief Minister, Yumnam Joy Kumar, national president Conrad K Sangma, MLA and party spokesperson James K Sangma and State president WR Kharlukhi.
The two brothers, Sniawbhalang Dhar and Ngaitlang Dhar were the next to join the NPP’s bandwagon. The Dhar brothers from Nartiang and Umroi respectively wanted Ngaitlang’s son, D. Lamare to contest form Mawhati and Sniawbhalang’s brother-in-law, W. Shylla to be given a Congress ticket from Jowai. Jowai is currently the seat of Deputy Chief Minister, R.C Laloo. Drawing flak for the move to promote his brother-in-law the minister was issued a show cause notice. Sniawbhalang was subsequently dropped from the Cabinet doubling the coal barons’ resentment. After quitting the Congress, the NPP may fulfil the ambition of the four in the family to contest in the same election. A record of sorts!
Another Congress man who might seek NPP ticket is the former Meghalaya Power Minister Comingone Ymbon who has resigned from the cabinet just four months after being inducted into the ministry. The resignation letter records personal reasons but an eye on the NPP ticket might be the hidden real reason.
A prominent absentee from the Congress list will be MLA P N Syiem who has even resigned from the Assembly two days ago. Also an MDC, the Chief Executive Member (CEM) of the Khasi Hills Autonomous District Council (KHADC) has been at loggerheads with the Chief Minister for a long time particularly over the Prevention of Disqualification (Members of the Legislative Assembly of Meghalaya) Amendment Bill, 2015 passed by the government prohibiting one from being MLA and MDC at the same time. The CM critic was ultimately suspended from the party for three years and will contest the next year election from the Meghalaya’s newest political party, the Peoples’ Democratic Front (PDF).
Missing from election process will be three veterans, the party president and four times chief minister D D Lapang, Health Minister, Roshan Warjri and deputy chief minister RC Laloo who have announced that they will call it a day as far as contesting election is concerned. The House has bid them farewell in the last Assembly session.
There is suspension over Pynthorumkhrah’s MLA, AL Hek. The Congress-turned BJP-turned Congress MLA is rumoured to be going back to the saffron party. The anticipated dais sharing with Prime Minister on 16th December in Polo did not take place as he along with Sanbor Shullai (NCP), Robinus Syngkon and Justine Dkhar (Independents) did not turn up.
The above notable exits might hit the ruling party hard. Or new faces might come up to take the grand old party to an unprecedented third term. You and I can’t predict for certain. These days ministers are busy inaugurating and laying foundation stones of guests houses, police stations, new blocks, educational institutes etc. Chips and stones are also seen dumped by the roadside to impress the voters. Whether this will work or not the electorates will answer on polling date.
The biggest gain from the Congress’ loss is the NPP particularly in Khasi and Jaintia Hills. Even inner sources admit that the party will do better in Khasi-Jaintia Hills than in Garo Hills (Winnable candidates in its stronghold are not too many). Once viewed as a Garo Party, the NPP’s future in the eastern sector of the state looks bright. The acceptance, perhaps is due to the fact that the party did will in Manipur. It even has four MLAs in Rajasthan. The image of a national party and disgruntlement with the Congress has temporarily strengthened the NPP in Khasi-Jaintia Hills. Time will tell. Over all NPP might do well in the next election but might not get enough seats for a majority.
After the maiden landslide victory in Assam and Manipur, the BJP had hoped to extend its juggernaut in the ‘Abode of Clouds’. The morale of the party was sky high as it thought the Modi wave would sweep Meghalaya. However, ‘beef ban’, cow slaughter, demonetisation and GST put spokes in its wheels. The party that is currently ruling more than half of India had hopes of forging an anti- Congress alliance with the UDP, the NPP and other parties. Doubting the Amit Shah led party, the regional parties were in no mood to align with the perceived communal party. Plus they are not willing to sacrifice the possibility of expanding their own horizons. Contrary to expectation no legislator has expressed their intention to join the BJP. The hope of capturing power in the state next year may not materialise for the ruling party at the centre.
The UDP and HSPDP have formed a pre-poll alliance. The alliance led to protests, discontent and even rebellions from party workers from both sides especially those aspiring for party tickets. While there were allegations that the pact was to safeguard the interests of party chiefs, Donkupar Roy and Ardent Basaiawmoit, top leaders maintained that the alliance was for the larger interests of the state. An alliance of all hills parties was even attempted but KHNAM was never to bury its bitterness against Paul Lyngdoh and others who almost succeeded in merging KHNAM with UDP.
While UDP and HSPDP combined may do well in their own turf but they have almost zero presence in Garo Hills. You cannot hope to come to power when you get nil result in the other half of the state. The blame goes primarily to the UDP. It has made little effort to organise and strengthen itself in Garo Hills over the years. A united party is effectively remaining in its comfort zone or better still safe cocoon.
What will happen after the 2018 election? This writer spoke to a few prominent citizens in Tura and Shillong. Almost all predict a hung Assembly. Instability looms large. The chief minister’s seat will be a musical chair. There might be repeated president’s rule. The reason is simple. Everyone will crave for one of the twelve cabinet berths. The absence of parliamentary posts adds to the complication. The scenario is quite dismal. You and I can vote to change the picture.