By Dr Satish Misra
Even before the dramatic entry of Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra into active politics last week, the country’s politics was becoming fluid as the BJP was losing ground and the opposition was gaining more space. Yet, neither the BJP nor the opposition seem to have a clear edge. Both are in the processing of finalizing strategies to win the 2019 Lok Sabha battle.
The popularity graph of the ruling BJP and its top icon Prime Minister Narendra Modi had begun to take a downward plunge as is evident in some of the recent surveys that were conducted recently. To name the few, surveys conducted by India Today-Karvy in January gives the BJP-led NDA 237 seats while the ABP News-Cvoter has given it 233 seats. India Today is giving the UPA 167 seats while ABP News is giving the UPA 166 seats. Majority of the surveys barring those having proclivity to the ruling establishment or the RSS are predicting a hung parliament in the Lok Sabha polls.
The BJP is losing about 100 seats and the Congress is said to be gaining about 50 seats according to these surveys. The regional parties are either gaining or retaining their parliamentary strength. Surveys have been done at a time when majority of people baring committed voter are yet to firm up their electoral choices as floating and uncommitted voter decides electoral outcomes. In any case, it is clear that the BJP’s popularity graph, at the present juncture, is sliding down.
Elections are still three months away as the first polling is expected to take place in April. Lok Sabha elections in 2014 were held in nine phases and the first phase was held on April 7. All political parties including the BJP are going to do their best to improve their political fortunes but it seems more difficult for the Modi-led NDA that is suffering from anti-incumbency.
On economic parameters, the NDA has been a big disappointment as even the rising GDP has failed to generate employment and create favourable conditions for entrepreneurs or business class to take new initiatives as a result despondency is prevailing in the country. Agricultural class is already severely challenged as farm distress is crippling their existence.
Palpable tension is present in society in absence of social peace and communal harmony. Mutual suspicions have grown in the last five years and all this has initiated a process of rethink at the popular level about their political choices though final choices are yet to be made.
The Modi government is likely to take many popular decisions like it did in making 10% reservation in jobs and education for the economically weaker sections of the society or giving sops to people through the coming Union budget. There are reports that the NDA government, under specific instruction of the Prime Minister, is even going to present a full budget instead of an interim or vote on account as has been the convention until now. In full budget, the government has enough scope to lure the voter through popular schemes.
It is true that prediction of a hung parliament scares many in the middle class and thus is likely to accrue some electoral advantage to the ruling BJP. On the other hand, the advantage is lost in the background of rising frustration among the youth particularly among those who voted for the Modi’s BJP in 2014 expecting dramatic improvement in their fortunes.
There are serious question marks on the opposition unity. It is very clear now that the shape of the opposition unity is going to differ from state to state. It is also true that the opposition is not in a position to present its prime ministerial candidate. To name the few, BSP chief and four times UP chief minister Mayawati and Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee are nursing prime ministerial ambitions in case of an opposition victory in the Lok Sabha polls. There are others too waiting in the wings for their chance in case of a popular mandate that does not give clear advantage to any leader or any political party.
Apart from the goal of ousting Modi from power, unless the opposition does not offer a counter vision and a programme of action to the people, it is very difficult to lure away voters from the BJP because Modi despite losing some counts continues to maintain his credibility and popularity.
That is precisely why former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda underlined the need to prepare a common manifesto before the people. Even if there is no national alliance to oppose the BJP, common manifesto could be coopted by state alliances.
The Congress, whose popularity graph after its victories in the Hindi heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and the coming of Priyanka Gandhi into active politics is moving upwards, is sure to increase its numbers further than those being predicted in surveys that were conducted before her entry. The opposition leaders must make a realistic assessment as electorate when voting to elect the national government often tilts towards a national party.
If the opposition leaders including that of the Congress are really serious to throw out Modi’s BJP then the index of opposition unity has to be high. Mere display of the opposition unity at huge rallies and public meetings is not enough as it only serves to build up an atmosphere but is not enough to win an electoral battle.
Coming general elections are wide open unlike that of 2014 when the BJP had a huge advantage. Initiatives, policy announcements, electoral adjustments and understanding, selection of candidates and above all credible promises by all parties in next three months will help the electorate to decide the shape and colour of the next government.
(Dr Satish Misra is a Veteran Journalist & Research Associate with Observer Research Foundation).