C K Nayak
NEW DELHI: If BJP has spoiled its gains in the North East, the Congress, which once ruled all the states in the region, has not done much to wrest back its lost ground either and whatever possible gains it may make will be only by default.
The more-than-a-hundred-year-old party, which was ousted only by the regional Asom Gana Parishad twice, has lost space to the saffron party in the biggest state. This time, however, it might get back some seats by default and by virtue of its underhand understanding with the AIDUF in Assam.
The Congress, which was famous for its “Ali,cooli,Bongalee” (Muslims, tea labourers and Bengalee immigrants) vote bank, has virtually ceded the minority-dominated constituencies to AIDUF and others. It is an irony that the Congress’s once undisputed leader in the state, Himanta Biswa Sarma, is now BJP supremo in the entire region after he left the party since he did not get along well with former chief minister Tarun Gogoi.
In Meghalaya, the party is holding on to the Shillong seat only, having surrendered the Tura seat to Purno A Sangma and later his family for decades. The seat has never been won by the Congress in recent history.
This time too, while Shillong seems to be a sure shot, Tura remains dicey since the legendary leader’s shadow still dominates the poll scenario in the Garo Hills. There is some hope for the party, however, since the two-time chief minister, Mukul Sangma, is himself contesting this time.
Like in neighbouring Assam, the success of the NPP mainly in Khasi hills is largely due to the Congress leaders who have deserted or were ousted from the party due to internal rivalry. The most recent case was five-time Congress chief minister D D Lapang, who is now Chief Adiser to the NPP government.
In one Lok Sabha seat each in Mizoram, Nagaland and Sikkim, the Congress has little hope since the party has been all but decimated. The party leaders in these three states have jumped on to the ruling bandwagon in droves.
But not long ago these states used to be ruled without any interruption by Congress chief ministers like Lalthanhawla, S C Jamir and Narbahadur Bhandari respectively. In all these states, the opposition now comprises of mainly former Congress leaders only.
In Tripura, the party is in the third position after BJP and CPM. After decades-long rule by the CPM, the BJP, in a surprise victory, dislodged the communist government and reduced the Congress presence to a single digit. The old party is fielding candidates in alliance with a tribal party, but the chances of winning in either seat seem remote.
The same story is repeated in Manipur where the party could not form the government even after winning more seats than BJP. Many leaders have subsequently left the party, but it is still giving a good fight in one of the two seats.
Like Joyti Basu, Gegong Apang, then Congress chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, ruled the state for repeated terms. But the party almost overnight joined the ruling dispensation at the Centre.
This time its sitting MP Ninong Ering has joined the BJP to fight in the Assembly polls which will be held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha elections. The party has put up candidates for both the Lok Sabha seats, but could win only in one, observers feel.
Sikkim, too, will have its Assembly polls with the Lok Sabha elections. But even in the assemblies, the party has bleak chance in Arunachal Pradesh and literally none in Sikkim.
But despite all the odds, the party hangs on to hopes for a change in the government at the Centre which, it feels, will also have a cascading effect in the states.