The ruling BJP is faced with serious dissensions, right at the doorstep of the Lok Sabha polls, and all eyes are on the RSS to see how things will pan out. The immediate provocation is the denial of LS tickets to LK Advani aged 91 and Murli Manohar Joshi, 85, which is seen as a fresh “insult”, coming on top of their virtual banishment from power circles after PM Modi took the reins in Delhi in 2014. This is likely to snowball into a major threat to the existence of BJP as a cohesive force, unless the RSS succeeds in calming down the two.
Having been dumped in the Margdarshak Mandal – advisory council – for five long years, and having had no major say in the running of the government or the nation, the two leaders obviously felt being insulted. Reports now present strange possibilities, like a Congress-led opposition fielding Joshi in Varanasi, a seat he had vacated for the rising star in 2014. With powerful Brahmin support which Joshi can rightly expect in the confluence of Hinduism’s holy rivers, chances are that Modi will lose his sleep. Chances are also that the PM will survive such odds with the clout he has with the general masses.
Even without Advani and Joshi, the going has not been all that comfortable for Modi all through the past five years. He has faced situations of embarrassment from senior ministers like Nitin Gadkari, often cited as the blue-eyed boy of the RSS in Nagpur. Among the ministers in the Modi government, he enjoys unique strengths to take on Modi. He had held the post of BJP national chief when Modi was still concentrating his attention on Gujarat. Gadkari had on one occasion proposed the possibility of him being the next PM if the BJP failed to get a majority and a situation arose in which allies like the Shiv Sena could act as the kingmaker in Delhi.
So far, the PM gave little space for those inside the BJP or those like the Sena from outside to flex their muscles in Delhi. That scenario could change after the results of the present polls are out. No one thinks the BJP can again win a majority in the Lok Sabha, as it did in 2014. In the past five years, Modi has built clout in some respects and lost clout in others. Within BJP, more heads could rise. A weak PM is an altogether bad idea, though.