Prime Minister Narendra Modi is obviously treading a cautious path in relation to Russia, where he attended a developmental meet at Vladivostok in its far-east region and participated in a summit with President Putin during a two-day visit. The logistics agreement, expected between the two nations for quite some time, stands deferred again. And, both India and Russia avoided wading into choppy waters. Both sides would not commit themselves to supporting certain core interests, and it’s here that the US angle is prominently evident. At the same time, the positives outweigh the likely negatives.
For one, PM Modi participated in the East Economic Forum Summit as chief guest – highlighting the importance Russia attached to India as also India’s role in the economic development and Russia’s geostrategic push in the region known for its natural resources. PM Modi has announced, in the main, a $1 billion credit to develop the region; the implication also being that India will have a finger in the pie. The region is strategically important in that it borders China, North Korea, Japan and Mongolia. Geopolitical interests are intertwined with economic clout. The cold region is rich in oil, natural gas, timber, gold etc. The signing of an agreement on a previously thought of plan to have a sea link between Vladivostok and Chennai is a significant step forward in the present visit of PM Modi.
Kashmir obviously formed a backdrop for the discussion on regional developments between PM Modi and President Vladimir Putin, and Russia tread on a careful course. Notably, it did not take exception to the latest Indian actions in Kashmir. PM Modi stood by the side of Putin and held forth against “interference” by “outsiders” vis-à-vis aspects of national and territorial integrity. Kashmir remains unpredictable as yet, while reports are also that Pakistan is massing up troops along the LoC.
When it comes to diplomacy, the devil is in the details. The geopolitical region as a whole is tense with both local issues as also global power play, evident in Afghanistan, the South China Sea etc. India will prominently need to keep the US on its side as Americans call many shots in the region as also dominate global fora like UN. At the same time, India cannot afford to antagonise power centres like Russia or China, or the UK for that matter. So far, so good, for India in matters of diplomacy. In sum this diplomacy would continue to be a trapeze act which India needs to carefully choreograph.