It’s time to heave a sigh of relief. The worst phase of Covid-19 pandemic in India is hopefully over and the nation will, from Monday, look forward to a progressive easing of the restrictions. Markets are opening up, farm sector is getting back to the daily grind, and industries are opening their gates again, though in a selective manner and not wholesale. Considering the plight that the developed world including the US and Europe have been going through for the past few weeks, India could heave a sigh of relief, though caution and alert are still the watchwords.
With a little over 500 deaths so far from the impact of Covid, India extricated itself out of a worst case scenario, positioned as it is so close to the originator of the virus spread, China. The lockdown was a painful decision for a nation already on an economic downturn. It stilled India for a month, but the gains came in the form of saving precious lives. The mortality rate vis-à-vis Covid infections here is at a low of about three per cent, a negligible scenario compared to the heavy projections from the US and Europe, as also China.
While the lockdown helped save India from the jaws of the pandemic in terms of afflictions, the nation took a massive hit on the economic front. India’s growth rate could slump to zero per cent or worse as per projections, while China’s to minus six per cent from the six per cent it logged five months ago. Curiously, after the Covid invasion, the world is faced with another invasion from China, an acquisition mania. India, taking a cue from what some European nations did a few days ago, has put in place a safety gear in the form of revising the rules for FDI inflows. This means neighbouring nations have to take the central government’s permission before they step in with FDIs as per amended rules.
China, despite its fall in GDP, can afford to go on the offensive in view of the heavy cash reserves its companies have kept aside from the hyper-activity in the past two decades. How the economic activities will pick up pace in the post-Covid period in India is worth a watch. Even the big businesses are keeping their fingers crossed. A calibrated relaxation of the lockdown conditions is envisaged here, and it will take weeks or months for the nation to return to full normalcy. Yet, there’s hope in the air.