By Ubahunlang Dkhar Tmar
The coronavirus; covid-19, is now well etched in our collective human memory. Infectious and communicable disease experts have been expecting such a pandemic to happen, judging from how diseases spread as the world is increasingly and intensively globalised. We are now still under the garb of this well adapted virus; we are in between events, stages or waves. We have not yet reached the post covid-19 situation. The world is still grappling with its repercussions, either in the northern or southern hemisphere. This virus has a major impact on public health and economy. Jacques Attali the French economist and social theorist, considered these ‘two as major tsunamis’ the world has to deal with as it engulfs region by region in each and every country under different climatic and ecological zones. This nano-metre pathogen has mastered the art of deception and warfare and ‘we are at war’, says world leaders.
Is this a war or a revolution that will change the way the world operates? Is this a major historical shift in the economic, social and political conventions? It is up to us. Yuval Noah Harari said, “the impact of this epidemic is not predetermined… we choose how this will end”. We need to choose wisely, at this hour. We need science and a lot of data, evidences, and peer reviewed scientific literatures. Our decisions should be data and evidence based and even on well thought-out projections and scientific analysis; privately or collectively we need to simulate different categories of scenarios and how to deal with them effectively and efficiently.Complacency and illogical, irrational inferences and references have no place in this crisis. Ideology, politics and biases will only weaken us. This virus is strong and effective because it is exploiting our weaknesses; biological and mental. We need cooperation not competition; this is not the time to lend ourselves to private gains and selfish motives. The virus is our collective enemy that needs to be contained, eradicated or neutralised.
Politics and Covid-19:
Apart from the public health and economic ramifications, this virus also determines political ramifications. World leaders and ruling political parties in different countries are racing against time, money and energy not to compromise their legitimacy and efficiency. Their political future is at stake or at an opportune moment. This virus has the power to compromise democracy, create anarchy as we have seen in United States of America, dictatorial leanings in Hungary, suspension of parliament in Israel, gagging of media, surveillance etc. But any crisis, (social, economic, political, epidemic) also provides opportunities and incubation for leadership. During times of crisis like these, political power lies in genuine empathy, self-sacrifices and strong leadership qualities; the kind of leadership, in the words of Dr (Late) APJ Abdul Kalam, which, “must have vision and passion and not be afraid of any problem. Instead, a leader should know how to defeat it. Most importantly, the leader must work with integrity.” People can astutely recognise a genuine leader; humans also have an innate sense of understanding non-verbal actions and communications. Evolution has equipped and programmed humans with non-linguistic sensory organs.
Governance during crisis is a daunting task. When dealing with epidemics it becomes more difficult. The equitable allocation and distribution of resources is crucial for maintaining the system and semblance of normality. This is the time where politics; vote bank politics, self-serving competitions, political backstabbing, opportunistic indictment or criticism is relegated to the backseat, with the exception of constructive criticisms. The political fight between States Governors and President Trump in USA has only exacerbated the situation further by reducing the effectiveness of private and governmental agencies to handle the crisis. But it also depends on the type and scale of crisis.
Normally during crisis or natural disasters, experts with proven records and expertise advice the government on its every move, responses and mitigations. In a democracy, the participation of stakeholders and community leaders is also crucial for any decision making process. Depending on the type of crisis or epidemics, a body which includes important government functionaries, community stakeholders and representatives from scientific experts’ community is important. But in a crisis like this (covid19) the scientific point of view (primarily the controlling of the virus and resource optimisation interventions) has more weightage.
Freedom of movement might be curtail or regulated, but freedom of thought and expression must not cease. Any misinformation, disinformation or fake news must be fought with the right information, or fight misinformation with information. There is a need of single information and communication cell or taskforce that can disburse information and communicate with people. A dedicated government website for all or any information related to the crisis is helpful (The government can install a media cell, the kind employed by major political parties that disseminate information to the public during elections). People, citizens need to feel that they are still part of a system that decides any policies on their behalf. The establishment of trust and communication is paramount. Any lapses or mismanagement, mis-communication advertently or inadvertently, discourage people and make them suspicious of any future policy attempts by the ruling authority or agency. Trust is a binding force in any crisis. Apart from trust, accountability and transparency are other important factors during and after the crisis. How funds have been utilised for each agency and intervention is also a question that hovers in people’s minds. A crisis is not an excuse for mismanagement of funds and resources. A crisis demands effective and efficient use of resources. Apart from strategic and pragmatic steps like testing, tracking, tracing, political and social solidarity to fight a crisis is also important. Examples are South Korea and Taiwan fighting covid19. Korea was able to control and contain without any ‘draconian lockdowns, roadblocks and restrictions on movement and assembly (source: The Diplomat, March 30 2020)
Coping with adversaries; Economy and Covid19:
We don’t have a crystal ball to find out when all this will end. There are various estimates and timeframes given by experts which range from one year to three years. There are many chains of transmission of this virus around the world both reported (and unreported). We all know that our modes of interactions and habits have changed. From now on, social distancing and personal hygiene will dictate our daily routines. Only a vaccine or the increment of herd immunity to 80% will somehow bring back the life as usual mode of living (?). For now, the non-epidemiological approaches (social distancing, testing, tracing etc) are our only tool to contain the virus.
What we also know is that if we take it lightly this virus can definitely overwhelm the health system, due to a faster rate of infections and the slow rate of recovery, which puts pressure on medical staff and resources.While thinking about easing restrictions and regulations, Governments have to assess what is the maximum number of covid19 patients (carrying capacity) will the health system be able to manage and handle.Governments around the world are walking on a tight rope to balance economy and public health. Reviving the economy and containing the virus is a difficult task especially in the context of developing countries where the unorganised sector is large.
Rich developed countries have dedicated billions of dollars to fight covid-19; they can afford long term shutdown, but poor developing countries will not be able to match up. If they don’t start running the economy in a few months, the crisis is compounded. Even if the virus is contained during this summer, but with the coming of winter and the common cold and flu season, there is also an increasing scenario of covid19 showing its face again. This virus can only be contained by a concerted effort between the government and its citizens. People have to avoid crowded areas, enclosed spaces with no ventilation, conversation in close proximity, social, physical distancing and personal hygiene. Therefore the politics of cooperation and cohesive social response is crucial. Maybe the utilitarian principles (greatest good for the greatest number) and social democracy will find its use in this crisis. Above all these, well-grounded scientific advice reigns supreme.