By Bhagirathi Panda
The world is struggling to overcome Covid 19 and minimise its impact on people, society and the economy. However, this pandemic has turned out to be a great laboratory for each one of us to draw important lessons about life, livelihood, society and the economy. We as common citizens and as social scientists have our lessons ready too. As I write this piece, total confirmed cases in the world happens to be 6799713 and total deaths 397388. For the country as a whole, the corresponding figures stand at 256611 and 7200. For the North Eastern Region(NER), the figures are 3783 and 5 respectively. If we calculate the death to confirmed infection rate(also called death rate), it stands at 5.84%, 2.8% and 0.13% respectively at the world, country and NER levels. In plain words, what this simple statistic says is that out of every 100 confirmed infected people, only 5.84(say 6), 2.8(say 3) and 0.13(say less than 1) persons die at the world, country and NER levels. Thus at the moment, the NER is in a better situation when it comes to the death rate from Covid19.
There may be various reasons for this low mortality rate in the NER. First of all, the absolute number of total infected cases is much less, compared to the total population of the region. The confirmed infection rate for the total population at the national level is 0.02 % and at the NER level it is 0.008 %( if we forget the issue of low testing for a while). However, we in NER should not become complacent because of this very low mortality rate. Statistics too hide a lot. As the lockdown measures are progressively relaxed and more and more people come from other parts of the country (whether stranded or because of job loss, or because of temporary closure of educational institutions etc.), the absolute number of case are bound to increase. This would definitely upset the low rate of infection and possibly the low death rate.
Secondly, compared to the country, people in the NER are more tuned to community life and living. Hence, chances of community infection too increase with increase in absolute number of infections. However, if the community leaders can prevail upon the returnees(through the degree of community hold they have) to effectively follow Covid 19 guidelines, this can prove to be an advantage and may not allow the infection rate to go up. Another, reason for the low death rate in NER may be because the region happens to be the Youngistan of the country. More young people in relative terms live in the NER compared to the country as a whole. They have immunity and therefore either do not get infected so easily or even if infected get cured fast without difficulty. One more statistics i.e. the recovery rate has to be read with a caveat for the NER. The current recovery rate as calculated from the official Government of India data shows it to be 49 % for the country. For the NER it is 23 % only. This low recovery rate for the NER read with the low death rate reflects on the high time lag between testing and getting the final results . This may also mirror the deficiency in testing infrastructure in the NER compared to other parts of our country.
Covid 19 and its unfolding facts, tales and narratives are also rich learning experiences for each of us. Never, in our known recent history have our minds been so awakened and soul unlocked to realise the inadequacy and helplessness of the institution of ‘market’ in caring for the poor and the middle class. And for that matter, never, in our known recent history have our minds been so awakened and soul unlocked to understand the economics and relevance of a partnership between the Government, Community and Market for managing a pandemic and its consequential impacts.
The heartrending story of the migrants leaving their workplaces and walking thousands and thousands kilometres in the scorching heat to return to their native places, speaks of the ruthlessness and inadequacy of the market (private sector). The impending recession and the trade war between China and USA may again bring a number of failures of the Market all around the world in matters of employment, income generation and production, further adding to the woes. This is the time when countries and citizens look forward to Government as a saviour and good governance as lubricating force for creating a conducive environment for revival of the economies in terms of growth and employment.
An important lesson learnt from the Covid 19 narrative, when it comes to containing and providing the required healthcare to the infected during a pandemic, is the imperative of having a robust public health care system. However, the containment of Covid 19, amelioration of the plight of the migrants and returnees and revival of the economy cannot be done by the Government alone during the different phases of the unlocking. There is a need for huge information collection with regard to the migrants and returnees particularly the ones who hail from rural areas. There is also the immediate urgency of sensitising the masses (including the migrants and returnees) at the local level about the disease, its spread, its effects and quarantine procedures. There is also the need to identify appropriate places for quarantining them. Mental and societal health problems too are expected to surface. Collection of all these information and arrangement of required infrastructure requires time, manpower and resources. Information asymmetry has enormous cost. At a time when the Government is flat and under severe stress with its resources, it is prudent to build a partnership with community and enlightened civil society to breathe easy and better manage the pandemic and its different impacts.
Similarly, the Government also needs to partner with the market, go for infusion of liquidity and play the role of a good regulator to revive the economy. There is no doubt that a large number of sectors of the economy have been hit hard by this pandemic. However, what matters most to us would be the plight of the rural economy, informal sector and the MSMEs. Rural economy is critical because it is going to bear the brunt of the reverse migration. With a fragile agriculture and distress driven rural non-farm economy (particularly in the NER), providing livelihood opportunities for the masses will be a big challenge. Till we create a predominantly pull based non-farm economy in the rural sector, programmes like MGNREGA can continue to work as a sponge to absorb the migrants and returnees. What is needed immediately here is better calibration of MGNREGA in terms of convergence and asset creation with agriculture and other identified high end non-farm activities specific to the regions/areas. Increased activities through MGNREGA can also revive the economy in terms of creating ready demand that is so critical now. A number of studies have established the multiplier impact of MGNREGA on income generation in the rural economy.
The urban informal sector and MSMEs also need a lot of patronage from the Government and the private sector. Government intervention can come in terms of easy credit flow, provision of infrastructure and policy modifications with respect to marketing, taxes, labour and land. The high end private sector should consider the informal and MSMEs as an integral supplementing and complementing part of the economy and should therefore endeavour to have a productive (not exploitative) arrangement with them. Post 1990s, the Chinese economy could accelerate its economic growth by establishing such an arrangement with its informal sector and the rural economy.
Finally, a pandemic requires enough of patience and commitment from the Government of the day at every level so as not to fall into the trap of becoming a dictatorial regime. It is more crucial for democratic arrangements like ours so that our space for genuine negotiations, aspirations, choices, freedoms are not lost or compromised. At the same time, the citizens of the country should also adopt and be adept themselves with the changing times to contribute their might for expanding the production and wealth basket of the economy without unduly being obsessive of their entitlements and rights.
(The author teaches at the Department of Economics, NEHU, Shillong)