Farmers in India should be provided with early forecasts of expected variations in the monsoon season in order to reduce crop losses, said a team of scientists.
Researchers at the University of Reading and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) led the first-ever in-depth study into how accurately ECMWF’s latest long-term global weather forecasting system can predict when the summer monsoon will start, and how much rainfall it will bring.
They found the model provided accurate forecasts a month in advance for the timing of the monsoon in India’s major agricultural regions. Providing this information to farmers could help them prepare earlier for unexpected heavy rainfall or extended dry periods, both of which regularly destroy crops in India.
Dr Amulya Chevuturi, a monsoon researcher at the University of Reading and lead author of the study said, “The Indian monsoon brings around 80 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, so even small variations in the timing of its arrival can have a huge impact on agriculture. Accurately predicting these year-to-year variations is challenging, but could be the difference between prosperity or poverty for many families.”
Dr Chevuturi added, “The forecasting accuracy we identified in India’s main agricultural regions provides a clear opportunity for this system to make a positive difference to people’s lives. A month’s warning of drought or deluge is a valuable time to understand the likely impact on water availability and for farmers to make provisions to reduce the threat to food supplies.”
“Better forecasts save lives, and this kind of in-depth global analysis is only possible when the best scientists and leading research institutes work together for the benefit of the whole planet,” Dr Chevuturi noted.
The Indian monsoon season starts around 1 June every year, beginning in southwest India before spreading across the whole subcontinent. Scientists looked at 36 years’ worth of monsoon data to evaluate for the first time the effectiveness of the ECMWF’s latest seasonal forecasting system – SEAS5 – in predicting how the Indian monsoon would differ from the long-term average. (ANI)
