Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine was by no means an abrupt action. For weeks, it was waiting to happen. What unfolds now is an unequal fight. Russian military might is several times mightier than that of Ukraine though these two are Europe’s largest and second largest nations. Ukraine on its own cannot hold on for many days. A collapse of the West-leaning government of President Volodymyr Zelensky is likely, but this depends also on how serious the West is particularly the US and Europe, in defending Ukraine. Economic sanctions alone will not deter Russia from its aggressive push. Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Its attempt to become one was a reason why Putin acted fast. The present Ukrainian president had dragged the matter for many years. Putin, who had invaded Ukraine in 2014 and annexed the small sea-side province of Crimea, was danger personified. Having vacillated, Ukraine can only throw its hands up now. Ukraine’s total military strength is 2.5 lakh soldiers, while Russia has nearly 9 lakh. What’s more important is the aerial might. Russia has 700 fighter jets; Ukraine has just 70. In a matter of hours, Russia might already have destroyed all the airports in Ukraine. Kyiv said it brought down five Russian fighter jets in what was only a one-sided incursion.
On his part, Putin has made clear his invasion is aimed at ‘demilitarization’ of Ukraine and not an attempt at occupation. What he might do is install a puppet regime and rule Ukraine by proxy from Moscow. This would suit his ultimate goal of re-taking this large nation that won independence from the erstwhile USSR in 1991. His obvious aim is to recreate a Soviet empire. Several of the USSR’s break-away nations are now under the NATO alliance; and an attack on them would not be easy. Ukraine was a sitting duck.
With dictators like Putin and Xi Jinping around, neighbouring nations are at risk of border incursions, wars and even annexation. Matching Russia’s or China’s military might all alone is impossible. This is true even for India. Dictators mark their time. They can go any extent. The disadvantage for democracies is body bags. With casualties rising, public opinion would turn against the governments. Yet, George Bush junior demolished a dictatorship in a matter of a couple of nights in Iraq and imposed a pro-West Shia government there. He did the same in Afghanistan and made it pay a price for harbouring Al Qaeda. Besieged Ukraine sends several signals to the world. President Joe Biden’s leadership is also under test.
