As one Ukrainian city after the other is fall to Russian shelling, the world looks on helplessly. Evidently the sanctions by western nations like the US has not deterred Russian President Vladimir Putin from undertaking his ambitious project of decapitating Ukraine as a warning to nations under the NATO that they cannot intimidate Russia without consequences. In the past India, known as the world’s largest democracy had stood on firm ground whenever and wherever nations have been bullied by dictators. This time though, India has had to walk the diplomatic tightrope over Ukraine in order to balance its ties with Moscow and the West. In fact, Delhi’s first statement in the UN Security Council was irresolute. India stopped short of criticizing Russia. This despite Ukraine’s appeal to India to take a clear stance. India also chose to abstain from voting for the UN Resolution. All that India did was to appeal to Russia to respect international law.
There are several reasons for India’s quest to find a diplomatic balance over Ukraine, the most important being its time-tested defence and diplomatic ties with Russia which continues to be India’s largest arms supplier. However, the share has dropped to 49% from 70% after India launched its mission – Atmanirbhar Bharat or a self-sufficient India to boost up domestic defence manufacturing. Russia is supplying the S-400 missile defence system which gives India crucial strategic deterrence against China and Pakistan. That is the reason why it went ahead with the orders despite threats of looming US sanctions. At the end diplomacy also means quid pro quo.
Meanwhile Russia has gone all out bombing strategic institutions that include hospitals, schools and residential areas mindlessly and even threatening to use nuclear weapons. Prime Minister, Modi will be talking to the Russian President yet again to request him to pull back. But will diplomacy work now? India faces a monumental challenge of evacuating nearly 20,000 citizens, mostly students, from Ukraine. To add to the trauma, Indians are facing a raw deal from the Ukrainians who feel that India has not been on their side. At this point India’s concern is in safely evacuating its citizens after one student lost his life on Tuesday to Russian shelling. India is forced to do the balancing act right now. If the US and other European nations continue to impose strict sanctions on Russia, then India too may be constrained to abort its business deals with Russia. At the moment the US appears to understand India’s position but for how long? And if India changes its stances now, Russia could well align with Pakistan and China to checkmate it. It’s indeed a tough call for India.
