With another round of peace talks involving Russia and Ukraine under way, there is yet little hope of an early end to the war that has already displaced millions in Ukraine and shattered life across its regions, principally the eastern sectors close to Russia. Yet, President Vladimir Putin faces a big question mark – as to what has gone wrong with his calculations of a swift pulling down of the government in Ukraine and installing a puppet regime in capital Kyiv. This, though, is a good omen – that, even mightier militaries need not expect to have a cakewalk and there will be costs to pay for any misadventure. It is this realization that should stop despots like Xi Jinping in China too to pause before targeting Taiwan or India.
The Ukrainian army is less than two lakh in strength, one-fifth of the size of the Russian military. Its military planes are just a few hundred compared to the thousands in Putin’s stockpile. Ukraine’s limited set of sophisticated arsenal including the portable, 12-metre long, FGM-148 Javelin Missiles that it has positioned against Russia’s bomb-carrying aircraft and lethal missiles to protect its cities are, prima facie, believed to have spoilt Putin’s hopes of a swift advancement, seizure of Kyiv and overthrow of Volodymyr Zelensky, the West-leaning Ukrainian president. The Ukraine military system’s West-aided capacity to seek out and shoot down incoming planes and missiles meant the advancing Russian tanks were left to fend for themselves without air support. Zelenski had ensured as much from the US during the term of President Donald Trump, though at high costs. No cost, though, was high if these systems could defend Ukraine for now.
What Saddam Hussein failed to have in Iraq was sophisticated weapons to thwart American missile attacks from the sea hence his government fell like a pack of cards in 2003. Taiwan, China’s breakaway republic, has strong military systems provided by the US to thwart Chinese designs even as there is no comparison between China and Taiwan. Moreover, Taiwan has a direct military alliance with the US and the West, unlike Ukraine that had not formalized a military pact for mutual support via the Nato. Had Putin had his way with ease in Ukraine, that could have emboldened Xi to first target Taiwan and later India. Nations across the world are bound to take a cue from what has happened in Ukraine in the past one week and re-adjust their military strategies, both individually and in alliance with others. The last word is not heard from Ukraine, though. If, finally, Kyiv too falls to the Russian designs, it would only leave more unfortunate lessons for the rest of the world.
