Count-down in Karnataka

The massive response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s roadshow for the BJP in Bengaluru in the past two days reinforced feelings about his growing popularity in the South but this by no means is a guarantee to his party’s victory on the May 10 assembly elections. With the campaign just about closing, the BJP is worried whether it can retain power in its only stronghold in the South. Karnataka has been a difficult terrain for any ruling party as the state never retained or re-elected a ruling dispensation for the second term since the 1980s. To add to this, two major factors conspire to raise tension in BJP circles – namely the lack of charisma for chief minister Basavaraj Bommai, son of a former chief minister, and the fact that the BJP had never won a majority on its own in the state assembly so far. Bommai had stepped into the shoes of party veteran BS Yeddiyurappa, who was asked to resign as CM by the party central leadership at the height of allegations of corruption and nepotism.
The Congress party is engaged in a do-or-die battle in Karnataka. It has two formidable leaders in the person of former CM Siddaramaiah and DK Shivkumar, the first a Dalit and the other a Vokkaliga – both being strong communities. The BJP says there’s a third name for the CM post, a dark horse, if the Congress wins a majority; meaning a hard bargain for the post that could even split the legislature party. But, winning is a matter of first priority for the tricolour party now. If it loses Karnataka, it would be difficult for the party to keep up the morale of the rank and file even at the national level. It could mean a loss of the South, which was once a stronghold for the Congress and is now mostly a playground for satraps of regional parties.
Admittedly, the Congress campaign machinery is putting up a façade of unity and, appreciably, the party played its cards in an unusually deft manner. This was reflected in the late release of its manifesto, a day after the BJP did it. The patient wait helped in that it stunned the BJP. The manifesto made a serious effort to win over several key segments of the population with huge promises – including to women, the youth, backward communities and farmers. The manifesto promised them the moon in terms of monthly dole and much else. While the main fight is between the BJP and the Congress, the minor third force namely the JD (Secular) could fall in between and perhaps emerge, again, as the king-maker.