Shillong, June 19: El Nino, the ocean-warming phenomenon, has officially arrived and may persist until 2024, posing significant risks of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, cyclones, and droughts. This warning comes as the world, including India, grapples with the effects of monsoon deficits and the increasing frequency of such disasters.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that El Nino could set new temperature records, particularly in regions already prone to above-average temperatures during this phenomenon. El Nino events typically occur every two to seven years, characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.
The last El Nino event took place between February and August 2019, but its impact was relatively mild. However, depending on its strength, El Nino can trigger various consequences, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in specific locations worldwide, explains Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Recent observations indicate the presence of Kelvin waves, potential precursors of El Nino conditions, moving across the equatorial Pacific toward the South American coast. These Kelvin waves, measuring approximately 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 cm) in height at the ocean surface and spanning hundreds of miles, are moving from west to east along the equator toward the west coast of South America, as reported by NASA.
The arrival of El Nino this year raises concerns about pushing global temperatures into uncharted territory and contributing to surpassing the critical 1.5 degree Celsius threshold for global warming within the next five years. Such a scenario could lead to catastrophic and irreversible climate breakdown, warns scientific reports.
“We’ll be watching this El Nino like a hawk,” says Josh Willis, a project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. The potential impact of a significant El Nino event includes record-breaking global warming, while certain regions, like the southwestern United States, may experience consecutive wet winters following the previous year’s heavy rainfall.
Global temperatures have already been accelerating to record-setting levels this month, which is a troubling indication of the climate crisis as El Nino approaches. If the El Nino phenomenon intensifies, 2023 could potentially become the hottest year ever recorded.
Indonesia is particularly vulnerable to the extreme heat caused by El Nino, with predictions suggesting that up to 870,000 hectares of agricultural land in the country may experience drought and crop failures.
As El Nino takes hold, it becomes crucial for countries and communities worldwide to prepare for the potential impacts of extreme weather events and work towards mitigating the effects of climate change.