By Ashis Biswas
During the past few weeks, Narendra Modi Government’s decisions and peace-promoting initiatives relating to the Manipur ethnic riots have only rekindled old controversies, instead of helping to defuse the volatile situation. Worse, most communities whether tribal or non tribal, now seem sceptical of the centre’s intentions and long term objectives in the troubled region.
An increasing sense of frustration among the region’s people living beyond Manipur’s borders, especially in Nagaland and Mizoram over the centre’s failure to restore law and order even 47 days after the initial eruption of violence on May 3, is apparent. In normal times, the situation should have proved worrisome for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders whether in Manipur or Assam.
What has angered most people even more than the substance of GOI’s initial response to the Manipur troubles, is its subsequent casual handling of the deadly group clashes that continued. The spiral of violence was allowed to carry on for days, until the political fallout spread not only to Manipur’s neighbouring states, but to Myanmar as well!
According to some NE-based media reports, GOI officials had contacted authorities in Naypitaw to make sure that armed Kuki tribals in Manipur did not get fresh supplies of weapons or other help from their relatives settled mostly in Myanmar areas bordering India. Back channel diplomatic methods had been used.
While the response was reportedly positive, people familiar with NE politics were not particularly impressed. They pointed out that even during Myanmar’s better times, successive ruling Governments had hardly notable administrative control over the activities of various armed autonomous tribal groups that lived close to India’s borders.
However, on a more positive note the West-backed rebel National Unity Government (NUG) in Myanmar, which has been engaged in a long-armed battle against the ruling Army Junta headed by Gen Min Hlaing, appealed to Kukis and related tribal groups not to get involved in India’s politics in any way, let alone participate actively to help one of the warring groups against another. They also called upon tribals not to engage in drugs and human trafficking trade so prevalent in the region.
It remains to be seen how effective such appeals are in helping the return of normalcy in Manipur. As of now, even as the death toll keeps rising, simmering tensions continue among tribals and non- tribals, along with occasional ambushes. This, despite the recent additional deployments of army, Assam Rifles and other units, along with increased patrolling and search operations. State and central law enforcing agencies have reported the seizure of significant amounts of weaponry and arms during their operations.
The party that has suffered the most in terms of losing political credibility in the present situation is the BJP. Apart from the party’s most prominent leader in the NE region, Assam Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, there is no one who enjoys the full backing of the Delhi-based BJP leadership, which remains the highest administrative, political as well as appellate authority. In concrete terms, everyone is aware the two leaders who really matter are the Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister, Amit Shah.
As stated before in these columns, many felt that the BJP leadership had erred in making it clear that they would deal with Manipur incidents, which had their bitter beginning on May 3, only after the Karnataka Assembly elections results. This had been made clear to the delegation of Kuki BJP MLAs and other tribal leaders who desperately called for protection against what they alleged were non-tribal group attacks occurring in the state with the state administration remaining indifferent.
Mr Shah made a two-day visit after more deaths and violence had occurred with tribals now hitting back against non-tribal Meitei majority in some places. He set up a committee to monitor the situation and make recommendations, while ruling out the tribal demand for a separate Union territory. However, GOI would also provide for better security and opportunities for the tribals as well, it was reiterated.
While Mr Shah acted in the manner expected of him before quitting Manipur, the arrangements he had announced did not work too well. Some members of the so-called monitoring committee resigned, for one reason or another, to give only one example. While not exactly making a public announcement, the central BJP leadership, left it to Mr Sarma to carry on the much-needed political dialogue with all concerned parties to defuse tensions in Manipur. Between the ruling Chief Minister Mr N. Biren Singh, a BJP leader of Meitei origin, and the tribal opposition parties there was no common ground let alone minimum mutual trust, for the time being.
Damaging disclosures about how the Kukis and the BJP had worked out a tacit understanding to ensure their support for the saffron party, also came to light a few days ago. Mr Sarma, known for his long standing links with many outlawed militants groups of the NE region as a former secessionist ULFA leader himself, had participated in such secret talks.
To date there has been no official response/explanation from the Assam BJP unit about such allegations against the Chief Minister, made by Congress leader Mr Bhupen Borah. There was a call from 12 opposition parties in Assam calling for Sarma’s immediate arrest for his alleged links with banned terrorist organisations.
While the state BJP remains on a sticky wicket over such damaging media reports, the major anger and disillusionment among the people however, remains targeted against Mr Modi and Mr Shah, for understandable reasons.
This can be judged clearly from the views and bitter tone of many articles appearing in the NE-based media, whether published from Guwahati, Imphal or Nagaland.
Strongly attacking the silence of the Prime Minister about Manipur incidents even after the Karnataka Assembly elections were lost, and no mention of Manipur in the Mann-ki-baat sessions, angry correspondents have asked: Could Modi and Shah have remained silent if riots had broken out in New Delhi or houses were being set aflame in Gujarat? Apparently what happened in Manipur did not matter, the culture of Manipur, its various communities and their welfare was on no concern to the BJP-ruled Centre…. It seemed Manipur did not belong to India — so ran the angry refrain in many political columns and editorials published in then NE mainstream media.
It remains for the BJP leadership to retrieve somehow the loss of its general credibility in the NE region, resulting from an ugly combination of indifference, its wrong policies and arguably inefficient administration. (IPA Service)