With less than ten months to go for the next parliament polls, or General Elections, the mood is set for a major battle. The Opposition was taken unawares by the strategy of the ruling BJP to come up with a Uniform Civil Code for the nation. The Opposition parties that met in Patna and set the ball rolling for a united fight in the 2024 polls, would be meeting in Bengaluru on July 17 and 18 to take their campaign against the BJP forward. In between, there was shock as the NCP of Sharad Pawar split at its base in Maharashtra with a majority of the party’s MLAs siding with his nephew Ajit Pawar to also effectively bolster the BJP chances there. Pawar’s bravado might not work this time as age is not on his side and his daughter — anointed the second-in-command in the party — does not have the same hold as father Pawar has in politics.
Pawar having emerged as the adviser-in-chief for the new opposition alliance at the Patna meet, the hit below the belt in Maharashtra he received at this crucial hour might work to his as also the national opposition’s disadvantage. Alongside, a Union Minister has claimed that what happened in Maharashtra could now happen in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, meaning a further break-up in the opposition ranks. This and PM Modi throwing his hat in the form of Uniform Civil Code have confused the Opposition vis-à-vis cobbling a common front against Modi and the BJP. The Congress party itself has stopped short of strongly opposing the UCC proposal for fear it would be playing into the hands of Modi. The Congress can ill afford to antagonize the north-Indian Hindu belt, which in terms of numbers decides who should rule the country. Predictably, again, the Left has come out in full support of the Muslims in opposing the central move. In other words, the July 17-18 meeting will be keenly watched as to how the Opposition unity would survive such odds.
Several states are already in election mode and the build-up for 2024 has begun in right earnest. The EC issued its notification for the 2019 LS polls in March hence the next notification can be expected in about nine months from now. The assembly polls in a few states by the end of this month could well be a dress-rehearsal for the LS polls. If the Congress retains Rajasthan and wins MP, the game will change in surprising ways at the national level. The morale booster that the Congress might thus get will be more than what the ambitious regional satraps can chew.