By Rajdeep Sardesai
The bugle for the 2024 general elections has been sounded. The no-confidence motion might have been won, expectedly, by the Narendra Modi-led NDA government but the competing narratives for the big battle that lies ahead have been set. This no-confidence motion was never about numbers in the first instance; it was about the perception game, something more intangible but often decisive in deciding who wins the hearts and minds of voters. So here is the critical question: who now has the momentum going into the 2024 battle? Here are ten key takeaways from the bruising parliament confrontation.
1) Prime minister Modi remains the central focus of the 2024 storyline. Ahead of the 2019 elections, the TIMO (There Is Modi Only) factor loomed large over the political horizon and reflected in voter preferences too. Five years later, the TIMO factor still shapes the political discourse: if the opposition, especially the I.N.D.I.A. alliance seeks to reflexively target the prime minister, the government cheerleaders buzz around the cult of Modi. The rapturous applause for the prime minister from the treasury benches even as the opposition walked out is indicative of how the larger than life Modi persona has deeply divided the political class.
2) A newly minted Rahul Gandhi, armed with goodwill from his Bharat Jodo Yatra and sympathy from his disqualification as an MP, is now ensconced as the mascot of the anti-Modi forces. During the 2018 no-confidence motion, Gandhi had challenged the government on the Rafale defence deal but then, quite inexplicably, chosen to go across the aisle and hug the prime minister and later wink at his Congress colleagues. Now, it seems that Gandhi has abandoned any pretense of conviviality and chosen the path of outright hostility to the ruling party. His likening the prime minister to Ravan while suggesting that ‘Bharat Mata’ had been murdered by bloodshed in Manipur indicates an uncontrolled anger in the ‘dil’ (heart) when the occasion demanded a more focussed attack from the dimag (mind).
3) So hyper-polarised is the political conflict between the two principal contenders that there is a shrinking space for any ‘neutral’ third front option. Fence-sitting parties like Telangana-based Bharatiya Rashtra Samiti (BRS), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP, Telugu Desam (TDP) are all being pushed to take a stand. While the BRS has slowly aligned itself to the opposition camp, the BJD, YSRCP and the TDP have drifted closer to the Modi government. As a result, two distinct alliances are gradually being forged ahead of the 2024 polls.
4) While the I.N.D.I.A alliance has been caricatured as a messy and opportunistic ‘thug-bandhan’ by the BJP, there is certainly a greater spirit of accommodation within its constituents. The manner in which the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for example has chosen to build bridges with the Congress suggests a flexibility in approach that wasn’t noticeable in 2019. AAP’s reach out to the Congress maybe more out of mutual self-preservation than ideological conviction but it does solidify the opposition’s challenge. If the TIMO factor makes the BJP a front-runner for 2024, the opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance is finding a voice with an ABM (Anyone But Modi) credo.
5) The opposition’s Manipur-centric interventions might yield temporary political dividends but they are unlikely to set the national agenda for 2024. The no-confidence motion was largely driven by the opposition’s determination to get the prime minister to break his conspicuous silence on Manipur inside parliament but amongst the wider public it is economy-related issues from jobs to prices to welfare schemes that are likely to find greater resonance.
6) The prime minister and home minister Shah might have captured eyeballs with their two hour long speeches in parliament but there is also a growing fatigue with the familiar ‘naamdar’ (dynast) versus ‘kaamdar’ (worker) trope. After nine years in power, the Modi government cant escape accountability by pinning the blame on the Congress’s past failures: how, for example, can the ‘double engine’ government escape accountability for Manipur in 2023 by harking back to Mizoram in 1966?
7) If the BJP still has the momentum heading into the big election year, it is because the opposition still hasn’t found a compelling narrative for change. The BJP has clearly decided to make 2024 a ‘Modi versus Who’ presidential-style national leadership contest once again. For the opposition, the challenge and the opportunity lies in making the electoral battle a sum of fierce state-level contests. Localised battles, as seen in the war between the Shiv Sena factions in parliament, could yet prove decisive in key states like Maharashtra.
8) The Congress in particular needs to get its act together within and outside parliament with a more coherent strategy. Most of its experienced hands are in the Rajya Sabha with the party facing an acute talent deficit in the Lower House. Moreover, the excessive focus on de facto captain Rahul Gandhi has meant that Team Congress isn’t making full use of its bench strength. Why, for example, did the Congress not choose to line up Shashi Tharoor as one of its star speakers in the no-confidence vote?
9) Parliament as an institution is being systematically undermined. This was yet another session when several days were lost to adjournments, when important bills were pushed through without discussion or any parliamentary oversight. Suspension of members that were once the exception are now becoming routine. A brute Lok Sabha majority without any checks and balances is a danger signal for the health of parliamentary democracy.
10) There is a nagging sense that any debate in parliament isn’t quite a level playing field with the role of the chair in both houses also under the scanner. Every time a major opposition leader sharply criticised the government during the no-confidence motion, the camera angles would swiftly cut away from the speaker. Mainstream media may have its loyalties but Sansad tv, funded by the tax-payer, is surely expected to be non-partisan.
Post-script: A defining image of this turbulent week in parliament was during the Delhi services bill debate in the Rajya Sabha: a visibly ailing nonagenarian former prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh seated on a wheelchair and listening quietly to the debate. When in power, Dr Singh was mockingly referred to as ‘Maun-Mohan’ (or silent) Singh by his political opponents. Truth is, in his decade in office, Dr Singh spoke almost 70 times in parliament on different issues. The more charismatic Mr Modi, by contrast, has spoken barely 30 times, often avoiding contentious issues. In his more reflective moments, former prime minister Singh might wonder why he was then lampooned as a silent leader.
(The writer is a senior journalist and author. mail: [email protected])