By Our Special Correspondent
SHILLONG, Sep 3: Will the opposition conglomerate “INDIA” cast its shadow on the state political landscape in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls?
That’s the critical question that arises after the disparate anti-BJP forces have announced their bid to field solitary consensus candidates in most seats.
In the national context, even though a two-seat state like Meghalaya bears too little significance, should there be seat adjustment among like-minded parties, the possibility of realignment of political forces in the state cannot be entirely ruled out.
Of the two seats, Tura is currently held by NPP’s Agatha Sangma, while Shillong is being represented by Vincent Pala of the Congress. Congress that finds itself aligned with TMC in the INDIA rainbow, would expect TMC to join hands.
Six months ago, the Congress (12%) and TMC (5%) accounted for mere 17% vote share at the last Assembly elections in what will in effect be Shillong LS Constituency.
The scenario will change if VPP (12.5%), a known detractor of BJP, chooses to throw its weight behind an INDIA candidate. The kitty will then swell up to 29.5% which may not be enough to get past NPP and BJP combine.
The ruling NPP is a part of NDA coalition in Delhi. Therefore, BJP will be its natural ally. Last time, NPP polled a healthy 27% votes in Khasi-Jaintia Hills, while BJP had a vote share of 7.5%. A tally of 34.5% votes of the two allies may prove to be decisive, provided UDP which garnered 26% votes, goes with NPP-BJP combine.
Regional parties in
Catch-22 situation
A key factor is the stand of the regional parties which polled 45% votes in last February elections. Will they ditch MDA 2.0 coalition in a move to oust BJP from power in Delhi? It’s a million dollar question.
On the face of it, the regional parties like UDP and HSPDP have a tough call to take. On one hand, the regional parties are well aware of the mood of the electorate. It bears repetition that the tribal voters have refused to embrace BJP which is largely perceived to be anti-Christian. These tribal voters have repeatedly made their choice clear by backing the regional parties rather than the resource-rich BJP. On the other hand, these regional parties who are coalition partners, may not be tempted to upset the coalition apple cart. Clearly, it is a catch-22 situation for UDP and HSPDP.
One easy course open for UDP is to set up its own candidate in order to maintain a posture of equidistance from the two power centres at the national level. But such a move will only facilitate the NPP-BJP combine to sail through, point out political observers.
If Pala has to emerge as the non-NPP consensus candidate for Shillong seat, Congress will have to get VPP on board. The newbie VPP is an unpredictable commodity, often unbending in its stand. It fancies its own chances of making it to Lok Sabha this time, given the fact that it caught the imagination of a big chunk of tribal voters.
Tura scene
On paper, Tura constituency looks like within the reach of NPP-BJP alliance. NPP has 20 Assembly constituencies in its bag, counted with one Independent ally. If BJP eventually decides to back NPP candidate Agatha Sangma, nearly a lakh of votes should get transferred to the sitting MP. The challengers TMC and Congress, have a low tally of two lakh votes at the last Assembly polls. Therefore, relatively Tura seat may not cause too much worry for NPP.
But the dynamics of politics can shift dramatically in case the INDIA narrative of protection to religious minorities is hammered in by TMC-Congress combine. But that’s easier said than done, particularly because both TMC and Congress have weakened poll machinery and shrinking resource base. With the principal parties having to spread their attention on a national level, it will have to be an uphill task for the challengers to put the act together, observers say.