The assembly elections in five states would, overall, be a dress rehearsal for the Parliament polls next year. The announcement sets at rest speculations over the holding of simultaneous polls to assemblies and parliament. It is clear to all by now that there are practical difficulties for holding all the polls in one go even as such a thought is well-appreciated and it can reduce the costs involved. Yet, the ruling party can be at a disadvantage in the sense that each voter would, likely, opt to distribute his votes between parties rather than putting all his/her eggs in one basket. The BJP realizes this. Over a period of time, however, assembly and parliament elections can be configured by a conscious effort on the part of the Election Commission.
Unlike the Parliament polls, the issues before the voters in assembly polls would centre round, most importantly, the performance of the outgoing government and the offers, this time, from each party or even candidate. The caste census issue by itself might not cause a consolidation of votes. The Congress and the regional parties are bound to woo the public with a bounty in the form of doles, which helped the Congress in Karnataka. The Congress has said it would come up with a similar manifesto in Madhya Pradesh. The BRS in Telangana too is coming up with new offers of welfare kits to women and disadvantaged groups. Fact is also that several state governments are already facing hard times in terms of funding for development purposes or even to pay salaries to their employees, as huge sums have been diverted for welfare kits with a view to wooing various sections of the society to the ruling parties’ side. Such governments are being irresponsible, but politicians seem hell bent in adopting this strategy for future elections.
All the same, the BJP is ruling only one of the five states up for polls, namely Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress runs Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BRS Telangana and the MNF Mizoram. Long-time chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan could not retain power for himself and the party in the last polls, but managed to stage a come-back. But the BJP does not appear to be in a mood to give him one more chance. Chances are also that the Congress will have the last laugh in MP. The main fight in Telangana will be between the ruling BRS and the Congress. Ashok Gehlot retains mass support in Rajasthan, but Sachin Pilot will not want to be his deputy. Therein lies the rub. The opposition has been weak in Mizoram. How the results would pan out in these five states is hard to predict.
