With the Election Commission all set to release the schedule for the General Elections, the opposition parties are readying themselves for a collective show. Complete opposition unity is a far cry, but the fact that the AAP has announced seat-sharing plans with the Congress for Delhi and also some other states means much. Alongside, the Samajwadi Party of Uttar Pradesh has also sealed a deal with the Congress, which will be extended to Madhya Pradesh too. In other words, the base for opposition unity is strengthening – this, after a lull of a few months after the three conclaves of the INDIA block. Several opposition parties are convinced that they await doom if they stand apart and fight the polls. The BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are, as of now, in an unassailable position. Between now and April, the mood of the nation may or may not change. All depends on how the Opposition takes the spirit of unity forward to fruition.
Telangana has shown that the Congress came from behind and grabbed power. The party remained dormant for several years after the 2014 bifurcation, followed by the 10-year-rule of the TRS- BRS that set itself on a self-destructive path. The Bharat Jodo Yatra of Rahul Gandhi came as the main prop for the Congress rank and file there to show it still had fire left in its belly. Youthful Revant Reddy harnessed the energy of the anti-BRS forces and won power for the Congress there. Similarly, the BJP was floored in its traditional bastion of Karnataka by a resurgent Congress in the last assembly polls. Word spread that the impossible is possible. But, the state polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh proved that the BJP continued to upstage the Congress. If Congress veteran Kamal Nath crosses over to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Sharad Pawar casts his lot with the saffron front as is being rumoured, how the ground realities there would change remains to be seen. Question is also whether these ageing leaders, or Nitish Kumar in Bihar, can still wield much influence over the electorate by virtue of a shift from one side to the other.
Claim of good governance in itself is no guarantee to the success of a political establishment, more so in the case of the BJP. The Atal Behari Vajpayee-led rule ended in a whimper in 2004 after big talks about “India Shining.” The hoi polloi knew well that their life remained unchanged and they voted en-masse against the BJP and its allies in the Lok Sabha polls, helping the UPA to grab power with Manmohan Singh at its head. In other words, election results are unpredictable in the wider Indian context.
