Periodic reports that the World Bank, or various UN agencies, release on global growth and well-being of individual nations are documents based on research by specialists. While it is tempting for many to rubbish their views as “coloured perspectives of White supremacists,” the authenticity of such documents cannot be wished away. A latest World Bank report perceives that it would take India another 75 years to achieve a quarter of US per capita income at our current growth trends and China could surpass this in a matter of 10 years. Set this against India’s ambition of becoming a ‘developed nation’ by 2047 – when we celebrate 100 years of its Independence.
There was a long lag for the past 12 years after the two Manmohan-led UPA terms raised the GDP growth rate to nearly 9 per cent. India is projected to grow at over 7 per cent this fiscal. During this period, the rich have become richer and the poor turned poorer in terms of their quality of life. China, on the other hand, achieved a high GDP rate for several years and then entered a phase where it sought a cooling off period and began keeping the GDP rate low. It is well-acknowledged that it can afford to do so. The Covid-19 phase saw major lull in the economic pushes of both China and India and yet the overall economy of both the nations showed signs of revival. The difference, however, is that India’s boasts of economic stability and speedy growth under the Modi era are not matched by the realities on the ground.
It was the post-Liberalization phase from 1991 that saw India shedding the shackles of Socialism and raising the Hindu Rate of Growth of plus two per cent to seven plus. This term saw a relief from the Licence Raj and it became easy for entrepreneurs to set up units, which in turn provided more employment opportunities to youths. Today, as economists point out, the controls are back and the scenario has turned terrible. The “independent regulatory system has deteriorated into a system of overt and covert controls.” Eagle-eyed bureaucracy and politicians are making hay. So many clearances are required to start even a small unit today. The manufacturing sector fails to take off and job-creation is a casualty. The central government has admitted that foreign direct investment flow to the country is not picking up, while increasing the flow is cited by the World Bank as a prerequisite to speedy growth. Huge sums are earmarked by governments here for welfare steps including subsidized ration, helping create a lazy generation. China makes its people work while India feeds its billion plus via welfare rations. Understandably, the productive sectors of the economy are under-performing.
