The turn of events in Bangladesh has taken India unawares. Chances of Delhi’s own external intelligence failure cannot be ruled out. Yet, a positive thing for Sheikh Hasina was that she could be safely evacuated to Delhi and given breathing space. By all reckoning, she might now seek and find a safe space for her retired life, but not necessarily in India. Chances are that she might get asylum elsewhere and still continue to remain in Delhi on a visit status, also as her daughter is engaged by an international entity in the national capital. India’s problems in giving Hasina asylum are easy to understand, it being Bangladesh’s immediate neighbour. Since the interim government there headed by Mohammad Yunus is hand-held by the army, and its continuation for any stretch of time is likely, there is unpredictability about Bangladesh’s future course. Conflicts between Dhaka and New Delhi could arise. Sheikh Hasina might be framed in cases in Bangladesh and the new government there, in course of time, could seek her deportation to Dhaka. India might not want a situation of throwing its long-time friend to the wolves. The asylum that Jawaharlal Nehru granted to the Dalai Lama after a Tibetan uprising against China hurt bilateral ties and led to the 1962 War.
The Bangladesh uprising had the unmistakable ISI stamp. Whether China, or even the US, was involved in it is a matter for investigation. Rumours spread that the student movement was infiltrated by pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami and ISI sleeper cells. Behind every disturbance in the Asian region, a US hand is always suspected in line with America’s geopolitical ambitions and penchant to unsettle strong rulers. India, however, remains an oasis of peace as Prime Minister Narendra Modi had, in his three terms so far, avoided touching hot topics other than the CAA/NRC. He cut and ran when farmers stormed Delhi, and he scotched the farmer reform bills in one go. His style ensured stability but, under him, India failed to reform. GST was the only step forward in major reforms. Yet, fact is that an aspiring India and its large armies of youth and farmers are not happy. A spark somewhere can lead to a fire and it can engulf the country as had happened in Bangladesh. Ensuring justice to every segment of the society is the principal job of any government. The subsidised ration scheme, introduced by the UPA-II, has been a solace to the BPL families. This could be one reason why the poor, getting a raw deal from governments dominated by vested interests, are not out in the streets in recent years. In the minimum, Modi should not take things easy here anymore. There are lessons to be learnt from Bangladesh’s current scenario.
