Latest IMF projections are that India could overtake Japan as the world’s fourth largest economy by next year. This is a matter of cheer for this nation; and yet, such propositions should be taken with a pinch of salt. The gap between Japan and India today is not wide. At the same time, the gap between India and the two top economic powers is huge. At best, India can in future hope to overtake only one more nation, Germany. In other words, it could remain as the world’s third or fourth top economy in the foreseeable future. The gap between the third, fourth and fifth is narrow. The US will have a projected GDP of nearly $30,000 billion and China around `18,533 billion against India’s projected $4340 billon, Germany’s $4772 billion and Japan’s $4310 for next year. The super GDP club of US and China would remain unassailable. Germany has a population of just eight crore and Japan 12 crore. Which is Advantage India.
A comparison of India with China on GDP growth is inevitable. By the turn of the century in 2000, India’s GDP was at $468 billion against China’s $1211 billion. By year 2014, India’s grew to $1434 billion against China’s huge $10,476 billion. This was largely the UPA period. By year 2022, India’s GDP grew to around $3,000 billion against China’s around $18000 billion. This was the NDA period. Fact is, when China grew by leaps and bounds, India trailed. The growth was slow here. To camouflage this, governmental leaders keep claiming that India is set to surpass Germany and Japan in matters of economic growth soon and that India would achieve a super power status by 2047, when the nation celebrates the 100th year of Independence.
Like China, India’s strength is its huge manpower potential. Populations of both these nations, the largest in the world, are about the same. India is believed to have already surpassed the Chinese population number. Two-thirds of India’s population – some 65 percent – comprise those below age 35. They carry with them India’s hope to emerge as an economic super power on condition that their energies are channelled to productive use. This is precisely what’s not happening here. The subsidised ration scheme and doles-raj have turned people lazy. The huge youth power has largely not been put to productive use. Opportunities – the conditions for lazy governments are not creating — are fewer. The nation’s manufacturing sector continues to suffer while the services sector is strong. Machines and equipment produced outside are ‘serviced’ here. Most of those in most sectors are paid a pittance as salaries. Money circulation is less, markets are dull. In the lack of a strong leadership, the problem of bureaucratic red tape coupled with greed, lawlessness, bureaucratic highhandedness and corruption, is getting acute.
