The die is cast for two more major elections – to the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assemblies. Yet, more keenly watched will be how the electoral scenario shapes up in Maharashtra, a battleground for major players and political stalwarts. The poll process starts with filing of nominations by the end of this month and the results can be expected by November 23. The BJP that runs the present government in association with a breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena and the NCP group headed by Ajit Pawar will be facing the parent Shiv Sena, the Congress and the NCP of Sharad Pawar in a no-holds-barred fight. Clearly, this is no cakewalk for the BJP.
The BJP had experienced a shock when its long-time ally, the Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray, ditched it after the last assembly polls and opted to instantly ally with the rival side – comprising the NCP and Congress – to form the government. The Shiv Sena was lured into the rival camp by a crafty Sharad Pawar, who got the Congress too to agree to offer the CM post to Uddhav. Uddhav fell for it and formed the government. The BJP licked its wound, but managed to pull down the government three years later and gave a similar shock to Uddhav by breaking the Sena and offering the CM post to its rebel leader Eknath Shinde. However, it appears that Shinde has not been able to live up to the expectations of the people. It is here that the NCP-Congress-Sena combine sees an opportunity now. Notably, the BJP’s chief minister from 2014 to 2019, Devendra Fadnavis, too could not impress the people much; a reason why the BJP could not improve on its prospects in the 2019 polls. The Marathi-speaking people largely see the BJP as an outfit with a pro-Gujarat tilt. There is no love lost between the two communities in the sprawling Mumbai, where Gujaratis once held sway.
The previous assembly polls had seen Sharad Pawar, somewhat down and out, engaging himself in a ‘do or die’ battle and his NCP re-emerging as stronger force. NCP won ten seats more than the Congress and emerged as the third force – after BJP and Sena. Perceptions about the huge corruption by Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar had not hurt the image of the pro-Maratha NCP, which also has strong support from the well-off agrarian community in western Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena has domination over Mumbai. The BJP is a major force in the eastern districts, with Nagpur as its epicentre. Notably, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP alliance’s campaign in the past two assembly polls. This time, it remains to be seen whether he would again be its mascot.
