As Year 2025 wears on, there’s both hope and hopelessness. The year that has gone by was marked by a general election that brought back the BJP-led NDA to power for a consecutive third term. Prime Minister Narendra Modi could, however, not laugh his way to power because his alliance was not blessed with a majority in Parliament. Two crafty regional leaders – Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam and the Janata Dal (United) of Nitish Kumar — came forward to fill the numbers required for the NDA to run government. They would demand their pound of flesh at the right time. The result is also that Modi cannot take any hard decisions for fear that these two leaders could rebel and bring down the government.
The Delhi assembly polls are set for February. All eyes are on AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, which will have a hard struggle retaining power there. The Bihar polls are set for June. The BJP is weaker there compared to Delhi. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is playing his cards close to his chest. He’s most untrustworthy and could shift alliances like a chameleon changing its colours. How the assembly results would shape up in Bihar is important. His bitter rival, Lalu Prasad Yadav, has extended an olive branch to Kumar, inviting him back to the Mahagadbandhan. A question is, can the BJP keep the present power sharing arrangement at the Centre intact for the present full term – and whether the main opposition, the Congress, show the courage to unsettle the government. Year 2025 will give clear clues to such possibilities. The BJP is set to have a new president in January. The power equations in the saffron party would change with the installation of a new head. The RSS would be observing its centenary this year and it could have a new head in place. The Congress party would increasingly feel the weight of Priyanka Gandhi in Parliament, where she got in a couple of months ago. The CPIM, which is steadily losing its national clout, will also have a new general secretary when it holds its party Congress in April. A new set of leaders would shape future politics from this year.
Modi himself is perhaps on his last lap in power. The shaping of a new leader to the prime post could start after the installation of the new party chief this year. Modi’s failures in governance are as stark as his successes. He has failed to take any strong step for two full terms, other than on Kashmir and in the implementation of a common market taxation mechanism in the form of GST. Those like Indira Gandhi and Manmohan Singh left lasting impressions on the nation with their strong steps or reformative zeal. Both are missing in the Modi era.
